Archive for April 2nd, 2008

[JOE MADDON] Joe Maddon’s Managerial Tendencies As A Chernoff Face

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Believe it or not, that face represents everything you need to know about the managerial stylings of Joe Maddon…well almost everything.

As a scientist in our day job, we reach our apex of nerddome every Tuesday when we rush to the newspaper stand to get our copy of the New York Times and their weekly “Science” section.

So color us surprised yesterday when we see that one of the feature stories in the Science Times is a story in which a researcher used Chernoff Faces to evaluate the managerial styles of every major league manager including Joe Maddon of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Aside from won-lost records, few metrics quantify what these men actually do and the tendencies they exhibit. But an associate professor of statistics at Swarthmore College is trying to set that right, quite literally putting a face on managerial performance.

The mathematician, Steve C. Wang, applied a method called Chernoff faces, in which data points in many dimensions are presented in a form that people react to more intuitively: the human face.

Aside from the bizarre and humorous image of each managers style portrayed as a caricature, there are some really neat revelations that come to light once you orient yourself to what the different patterns represent.

First off here are the keys..
As you can see various facial features are used to represent how one manager manages compared to the league average in several categories.

And here are the league averages…
And here is Maddon alongside three other managers with contrasting styles…
A few things we can learn about Maddon.

  • We can see that Maddon is fairly close to league averages for most categories based on the size of the face, hair, eyes and nose.
  • The only two categories in which Papa Joe deviates significantly from league averages are the use of sacrifice bunts (he doesn’t) and the use of pinch-hitters (he rarely does). The latter may be explained by the amount of speed already inherent in the Rays starting lineup.

And finally here is Maddon as compared to Mike Scioscia, under whom Maddon served as a bench coach.
As you can see there are definitely some strong similarities in the styles of the two managers. The most telling differences is the more frequent usage of pinch-hitters by Scioscia (face width), the increased usage of different lineups and hit-and-runs (eye size) and the usage of strong platoon matchups (hair size). On the other hand, steal attempts, pinch-runners and sacrifice bunts are nearly identical.

One feature we wish they would have included was glasses. Papa Joe’s would certainly be “rose-colored”.

Professor Puts a Face on the Performance of Baseball Managers [New York Times]

[RI CONFIDENCE GRAPH] The Rays Index Confidence Graph: Weeks Until Opening Day

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The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Wednesday and is a look at how much confidence Rays fans have in the Tampa Bay Rays. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how fans feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence fans have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. Notes on this weeks agida-level can be found after the graph..

Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…

  • The most common response for “Confidence in 2008 Rays” was 7 (If things break right, they could be in race for playoffs) with 35.4%
  • The most common response for “Confidence in future of franchise” was 8 with 33.3%.
  • Confidence in the 2008 Rays ranged from 3 (Headed for another 90-loss season) to 10 (The Rays are built/playing like a World Series contender)
  • Confidence in the future ranged from 5-10.
  • 49.2% of respondents feel the Rays have a shot at the playoffs in 2008. That number is up from 30.0% last week.
  • 86.2% of respondents feel the Rays should be at least a .500 team in 2008. That number is up from 71.4% last week.

[THE HANGOVER] Rays Lock-Up Dan Wheeler For 3 Years

Al Reyes, Andrew Friedman, Carl Crawford, Dan Shanoff, Dan Wheeler, Matt Garza, Rocco Baldelli 1 Comment »

Tampa Bay Rays (1-0)

Yesterday: Tampa Bay Rays (Off Day).

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA

  • The Rays signed Dan Wheeler to a 3-year extension. The deal will pay Wheeler $9.5 million over the next three years with a 4th year team option that is worth $4 million with a $1 million buyout. With the deal, Wheeler actually takes a slight pay cut for 2008. Prior to the season Wheeler avoided arbitration when he agreed to a 1-year, $2.875 million. With the new deal, he will earn $2.8 million for 2008. Wheeler would have been a free agent at the end of the year and likely would have been traded prior to July 31 had an extension not been signed…In other news, the Rays picked up the first of two options on Carl Crawford’s options. This one is for the 2009 season and will pay CC $8.25 million. The Rays also declined Rocco Baldelli’s 2009 option for $6 million, instead, paying the $4 million buyout. The buyout is to be payed out, half this November, and half next November. [The Heater]
  • Outs Per Swing hit the nail on the head with the Dan Wheeler extension. The rate may seem a little steep on the surface, but at some point in the next three years, Wheeler will likely be the Rays closer and if that happens, the price tag will be a bargain. [Outs Per Swing]
  • Rays of Light says the Dan Wheeler signing is another sign that the team is committed to winning even if this deal is not as sexy as some others.Of a more immediate concern, they suggest that this increases the chances that Al Reyes is dealt prior to the trading deadline. Reyes is a free agent-to-be. [Rays of Light]
  • Andrew Friedman says that once Rocco Baldelli’s health situation is addressed, the team will make every effort to keep Rocco in a Rays’ uniform. Baldelli says that he is encouraged after recent visits to doctors. [St. Pete Times]

Baldelli said he “hadn’t given any thought” to his contract situation as he focuses on his health, and he said after recent visits to several specialists: “We are seeing progress as far as a more specific type of diagnosis and I’m encouraged by that.”

  • Sure sounds like even Dan Shanoff is jumping on the Rays bandwagon. [Sporting News]

Tampa is not only 1-0 as the “Rays”; they seem as legit as all of the preseason hype suggested they were …

  • DRays Bay calls Andrew Friedman the opening day MVP. [DRays Bay]
  • Matt Garza is anxious to make his Rays’ debut tonight. [MLB]