The Rays made a couple of moves today, one surprise, one not so much, in an effort to finalize their 25-man roster for opening day on Monday in Baltimore.
The surprising move is that the Rays have acquired Nathan Haynes off of waivers from the Los Angeles Angels. The move was announced during today’s televised broadcast of the Rays’ matchup with the Reds. Haynes figures to be the Rays 4th outfielder come opening day suggesting that Eric Hinske will not be on the opening day roster.
Haynes, 28, was originally a first round selection of the A’s in 1997. After 10 years in the minors, he made his major league debut last year for the Angels, appearing in 40 games, hitting .267/.313/.311 in only 45 at bats. In his 11 pro seasons, Haynes has only appeared in 100 games three times. He does appear to have some speed with 254 career steals in the minors.
Balfour cut; Dohmann takes last bullpen spot [Rays Report]
Rays of Light is reporting that Matt Silverman addressed season ticket holders informing them that the plan is to keep Evan Longoria in the minors all season.
According to Silverman, Evan Longoria will most likely spend the entire 2008 season in the minors, barring injury or a performance at Durham showing beyond a doubt that he can succeed at a Major League level.
This certainly sounds alarming but we find it hard to believe. How does a team go from “Maybe we give him the opening day job” to “Not this year” after the spring Longoria had? They don’t.
There was considerable negative reaction from both fans and both the local and national media after the Rays decided to demote Longoria and give the everyday third base job to Willy Aybar. Many believe that the Rays are just trying to save money by delaying the start of Longoria’s service time at the cost of fielding the best possible team in 2008.
Telling us that there are no plans to promote Longoria in 2008 is apparently the way the Rays are dealing with the backlash. This way, they can say they are not demoting him just for the service time and when they do call him up, it will be because Longoria “earned” it and not because Neptune and Jupiter were aligned in the proper quadrant for the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Remember what Dr. House always says….Everybody lies.
The Good: Scott Dohmann retired all 4 batters he faced, including the final out of the 6th inning with the bases loaded…Another errorless game for the Rays who have 21 in the spring. Only 6 teams have committed fewer…
The Bad: Rays pitchers had their streak of 21 innings without a walk end in the 3rd and then proceeded to walk 7 on the day including one with the bases loaded by Grant Balfour and hit a batter by Andy Sonnanstine….
The Telling: Elliot Johnson got the start at third base over Joel Guzman as Willy Aybar continues to nurse a sore hamstring. Either Johnson or Guzman will get the opening day assignment if Aybar is not ready to go.
DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…
Obligatory Public Service Announcement: We will be hosting the 2nd Annual Opening Day Tampa Bay Rays Live Blog here at RI. So feel free to stop by and join in on the shenanigans as participation is certainly welcome.
Want a good indication that Scott Dohmann will be named to the roster over Grant Balfour? Try this quote from Balfour: “It’s tough to go out there and pitch every time knowing that you’re either on the team or off the team…It’s tough, having that pressure on you, I must admit.” Excuse me? You know what else is pressure? Coming in to the game with a 1-run lead and runners on 2nd and 3rd. Funny…We thought pressure was something a relief pitcher needs to be able to handle. The whole point of this battle for the final spot in the bullpen is to send you guys out there every time knowing a job is on the line and seeing how you handle it. [St. Pete Times]
The Rays are tied with the Cubs and White Sox for most hit batters in spring training with 17. James Shields has 4 all by himself, which is the second most in the spring. As per a discussion in the comments section a few days ago, on the surface it appears like Joe Maddon and Jim Hickey are emphasizing the importance of pitching inside with the benefit outweighing the occasional hit batter. Now we see that this is also being implemented at the minor league level as Durham pitching coach Xavier Hernandez is preaching the same method to the minor leaguers, in particular Chris Mason who was the AA pitcher of the year last year. Mason has hit 5 batters in camp this spring. [Montgomery Advertiser]
“I’ve always emphasized it,” Hernandez said. “Being at the Triple-A level and going to the major leagues at the end of last year, I realized that it’s not only important, it’s imperative.”
Acording to Outs Per SwingEvan Longoria already has more AAA experience than all of the following third basemen combined: Albert Pujols, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Miguel Cabrera and Kevin Kouzmanoff. He also has the same experience as David Wright and is only 3 games short of Ryan Braun. [Outs Per Swing]
Rays of Light picked up a nice not-very-surprising tidbit about Elijah Dukes. Apparently he went MIA from the Nats for “non-baseball matters”…We’ve said it before, we will say it again. We don’t care if Glenn Gibson never throws another pitch, the Rays made a great trade to get rid of that ticking time bomb. [Rays of Light]
The Sports Illustrated Baseball Preview issue is out and here is a link to the Rays preview. [ESPN]
David Pinto goes to PECOTA to show that the Rays have the best rotation in the AL East, and that takes into consideration that starting pitchers will miss time and uses Jason Hammel in place of Edwin Jackson. [Yahoo! Sports]
Here is another projection for the Rays pitching staff. [Baseball Musings]
RJ Anderson answers 5 questions about the Tampa Bay Rays at The Hardball Times. [The Hardball Times]
Back in December we took a look at “The Curious Case Of Elliot Johnson“. We examined how far he had fallen on the prospect board in only one season, noting that it was “not too late for Johnson to reclaim his semi-elite status” but that he was in danger of becoming a “journeyman minor leaguer”.
With Ben Zobrist on the DL for the first week of the season, it is now a foregone conclusion that Elliot Johnson will make the roster as the Rays backup-everything-especially-short-and-center guy. Even more amazing is with Willy Aybar still nursing a sore hamstring, Johnson may now be the Rays opening day starter at third base…
.207-11-45, .285 OBP, .626 OPS
Those are the numbers that Elliot Johnson posted last year at AAA Durham. They don’t exactly scream “major leaguer waiting to happen”. In fact that OPS was the 5th worst in AAA in 2007.
Not ranked
That is where Elliot Johnson was found in our Meta-Analysis of Rays Top Prospects in which we looked at the Rays top 14 prospects from several different sources.
Not Ranked
That is where Elliot Johnson was found in the RaysBBTop 25 prospects list which polled numerous members of the Rays blogosphere including us (We actually had Johnson #16 in the list we submitted for RaysBB).
.440-1-8, .482 OBP, 1.082 OPS
Amazing what a month will do. Those are Elliot Johnson’s spring training numbers. In addition, he showed Joe Maddon that he is at least passable at several different positions, playing second, short, third and the outfield at different points during the spring.
We would have been less surprised if Edwin Jackson pitched 23 consecutive innings without a walk.
With only days to go before the regular season, trade talks are heating up with the Rays who are still in the market for a right fielder and have several pitchers that are out of options, including Scott Dohmann, Grant Balfour, and Jason Hammel. Therefore it is time to update our Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index (TVI)…
The TVI ranks every player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, if the Rays could only keep one of two players (A or B) from the organization, which player would the front office choose to keep. If the answer is player A, he would be ranked ahead of player B.
The TVI is not based on player potential. Rather the rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into play if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Fernando Perez would be a little higher due to his exceptional speed and strong OBP, but loses a little value because he has bad hair, and some more value because the team has BJ Upton firmly entrenched in center field for years to come. Another factor is team needs. A pitcher may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” position player because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level.
We do use a very rough mathematical formula that gives differential weights to the various factors. This gives the list a starting point which is then tweaked based on the discussions of several committee members that may or may not have been under the influence of alcohol. Keep in mind that in many instances there is only a very slight difference in value from one position to the next in which we could easily make a strong argument for swapping two players in the rankings. That being said we are fairly confident that most players are within a couple of spots of where they should be. Or not. Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments. [More detailed notes about specific players, follow the Rankings]
The top of the rankings are much closer than many might think. Scott Kazmir is Scott Kazmir. On the other hand, James Shields is a little more of a mystery. If he can show that 2007 was not a fluke, he is under team control for the next seven years at a reasonable price. That is very valuable commodity.
If BJ Upton can show that his high strikeout totals are nothing to be concerned about he is the new Carl Crawford. That is he is the Rays outfielder that all Yankees fans wish they had but for once they can’t just go out and buy him or trade whatever is in the system for him.
David Price slides a few spots after his latest arm troubles that will delay his professional debut and put a nail in the coffin of any chance he might have had about a major league debut in 2008.
Dioner Navarro gets a very strong ranking based on the shortage of young major league catchers and a strong second half offensively. There are many teams that would love to have a Navi in their lineup.
In general veteran relief pitchers are ranked higher than their talent levels because those are the most sought-after commodities by contending teams.
JP Howell is rising fast because of his new role as lefty relief pitcher that is good for 2-3 innings.
For the prospects we always place a stronger value on players that have performed at the AA or AAA levels. As many of you know already we believe a player like Fernando Perez is more valuable than Desmond Jennings because he is closer to the majors even if Jennings may one day be the better major leaguer.
The Good: The Rays used the league minimum three regulars yesterday. Two of those three, Jason Bartlett and Aki Iwamura the Rays new double-play combo combined for 5 of the Rays 6 hits, including two extra-base hits and both RBI. They also combined on yet another double-play…For the second straight game Rays pitchers did not walk a batter.
The Bad: Elliot Johnson committed two errors on the same play in center field. First he misplayed a hard hit ground ball single up the middle, and then threw the ball into the dugout. Not what Johnson wants trying to convince Joe Maddon that he can be the backup centerfielder for the first week of the season.
The Telling: Jason Bartlett added his 5th stolen base indicating that even though he will bat 9th, Joe Maddon is going to treat Bartlett like a second leadoff hitter and Bartlett is going to rack up steals this year.
DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…
Obligatory Public Service Announcement: We will be hosting the 2nd Annual Opening Day Tampa Bay Rays Live Blog here at RI. So feel free to stop by and join in on the shenanigans as participation is certainly welcome.
Two days ago we ran a poll on public opinion about the Rays decision to send Evan Longoria to the minors to begin the season. 52.3% of respondents think Longoria should have began the season with the Rays. 47.7% think the Rays did the right thing with sending Longoria to Durham, with 36.7% thinking the move should have been made at least in part because it is good for the future of the franchise. Interestingly, 60.0% think Dirtbag needs more seasoning although about half of those think he could finish the learning curve at the big league level. [Rays Index]
Thanks to the great work of Stacy Long, we have our first look at what the rosters for each minor league affiliate might look like to begin the 2008 season. These are reflected in the CorkBoard in the sidebar. We say might because camp has yet to break and some of these assignments are only temporary based on needs. There are also several players still in big league camp that have yet to be reassigned. In addition, most of the players listed under the two short-season squads will remain in extended spring training and have yet to be assigned to a specific team. Finally, starting lineups for each team won’t be relevant until the season begins…However, we do see a number of big names in the system have taken their expected steps up in 2008. [Riverwalk Talk]
Tigers pitcher Todd Jones takes a none-too-subtle shot at the Rays in the little side bar of his Sporting News blog. Don’t worry, you will find our none-too-subtle response in the comments section. [The Sporting News]
Rocco Baldelli’s favorite sport to watch is Team USA softball…Me too Rocco, you sly dog. Me too. *nodding acceptingly* [Bradenton Herald]
Interestingly, with Evan Longoria now in the minors, Willy Aybar may not be the opening day third baseman after all because of a nagging hamstring problem. If he is not ready to go, the starter would either be Elliot Johnson or Joel Guzman. [Tampa Tribune]
Joe Maddon calls Jason Bartlett “probably the best base runner I’ve seen since Paul Molitor.” High praise indeed. And just another example that people should not consider Bartlett’s spot in the lineup (#9) a sign that Maddon does not have any faith in Bartlett’s abilities. Quite the opposite. As the #9 hitter, Bartlett and Iwamura provide Maddon with back-to-back leadoff hitters to get on base and wreak havoc on the basepaths in front of the Rays mini-muderer’s row of 2-3-4 hitters Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and BJ Upton. [Tampa Tribune]
RJ Anderson urges Rays fans to look at the big picture and not panic about recent moves involving Jeff Niemann and Evan Longoria or the injury by Scott Kazmir. [DRays Bay]
We are beginning to think the Rob Neyer at ESPN.com is a closet Rays fan. Yesterday, he tackles the issue of whether or not the Rays lied to the fans about why Evan Longoria was sent to the minors. [ESPN]
Of course the Rays lied. Teams lie to their fans weekly, if not daily (Christmas and New Year’s are usually lie-free). Baseball teams, like everybody else in the world, tell you whatever they think they can get away with, especially if they think it’s something you want to hear…For me, the bottom line is this: I don’t care if my favorite team lies, as long as it’s in the service of the franchise’s long-term health. And while the Rays look silly now, given how impressive Longoria was this spring, I think it was a lie worth telling. And a month or two from now when Longoria is beginning his late drive for Rookie of the Year, all should be forgiven.
Rob Neyer also has his annual list of the “Top 50 for five years”. He previously gave us the positional lists in which Carl Crawford was named the top left fielder for the next five years and BJ Uptontopped the list of center fielders…In the overall Top 50, Upton comes in at #15, Crawford is #36 and Evan Longoria comes in at #20 although Neyer notes that the 20-spot “might be too high, as Longoria hasn’t played a single inning in the majors. It might be too low, as any objective method will choose Longoria as the American League’s No. 1 or 2 third baseman over the next five years.” [ESPN]
Jim Moloney calls the Rays one of the top 10 stories of 2008. [MLB]
Stacy Long has a neat story about how the Rays acquired a new middle infielder (Jeff Bannon) for the Durham squad after Bulls manager Charlie Montoya met Bannon’s wife who was a nurse in the hospital where Montoya’s son was being treated. [Montgomery Advertiser]
Using six different projection systems, one website projects the Rays to finish 82-80.
In 2006 and 2007 we called this “The Mathematical Definition of ‘No Chance In Hell’”. In 2008? It is now more like the “The Mathematical Definition of “Getting Warmer”.
The good folks over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog have finished their annual mathematical projections of the 2008 season. In short they run 1000 simulations for the 2008 season using player projections from six different sources including Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA, Diamond Mind, Sean Smith’s CHONE system, The Hardball Times and their own CAIRO.
Last season only the first four projections were used and when combined, the Rays were projected to win 71 games and made the playoffs 45 out 4000 seasons or about 1.1% of the time. In reality, the Rays lost 148 games and made the playoffs 0% of the time.
For more details on the individual projection systems and their level of historical accuracy, go HERE.
Now let’s take a look at how the Rays are projected for the 2008 season…
A few notes on the projections…
We previously mentioned that single iterations of the 2008 season using PECOTA and CHONE projection systems gave the Rays 88 and 89 wins respectively. At the time we tried to temper the excitement because they were only a single piece of data. We now see that both systems have slightly lower numbers when projected over 1,000 seasons.
These projections are based on a healthy Scott Kazmir.
Even the most conservative projection for the pitching staff (Diamond Mind) has the Rays allowing 100 fewer runs in 2008 while PECOTA has them bettering their ERA by over a run a game.
The average projections look a little like what I think most Rays fans would expect. A .500 record and about a 1 in 6 chance of making the playoffs if things break the right way.
We now have a mathemtical definition for “No Chance in Hell” [Rays Index] 2007 Mathematical Definition Of ‘No Chance In Hell’ [Rays Index]
The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Wednesday and is a look at how much confidence Rays fans have in the Tampa Bay Rays. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how fans feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence fans have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. Notes on this weeks agida-level can be found after the graph..
Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…
The most common response for “Confidence in 2008 Rays” was 7 (If things break right, they could be in race for playoffs) with 25.7%
The most common response for “Confidence in future of franchise” was 8 with 37.9%.
Confidence in the 2008 Rays ranged from 3 (Headed for another 90-loss season) to 8 (They will be in playoff contention all season)
Confidence in the future ranged from 3-10.
30.0% of respondents feel the Rays have a shot at the playoffs in 2008. That number is down from 63.4% last week…Fans are not taking the news about Scott Kazmir or Evan Longoria well at all.
71.4% of respondents feel the Rays should be at least a .500 team in 2008. That number is down from 91.6% last week.
Remember that story about former Devil Rays’ prospect Joey Gathright being drafted by the Rays after a scout witnessed him jumping over a car in the high school parking lot? Well, Gathright was never able to utilize that potential with the Rays and was eventually traded to the Royals for JP Howell. Well, Gathright finally put his mad hops to use in a baseball game the other night…Sometimes we wonder if Howell has enough arm strength to throw a ball over a car.
One year ago on Rays Index we learned that Matt Silverman was exploring the possibility of giving Vince Naimoli a more prominent and public role with the organization. We can only assume that since we have not heard Naimoli’s name since, that Silverman came to his senses.
The Impending Return Of Vince Naimoli [Rays Index]
