Mar 27
Back in December we took a look at “The Curious Case Of Elliot Johnson“. We examined how far he had fallen on the prospect board in only one season, noting that it was “not too late for Johnson to reclaim his semi-elite status” but that he was in danger of becoming a “journeyman minor leaguer”.
With Ben Zobrist on the DL for the first week of the season, it is now a foregone conclusion that Elliot Johnson will make the roster as the Rays backup-everything-especially-short-and-center guy. Even more amazing is with Willy Aybar still nursing a sore hamstring, Johnson may now be the Rays opening day starter at third base…
.207-11-45, .285 OBP, .626 OPS
Those are the numbers that Elliot Johnson posted last year at AAA Durham. They don’t exactly scream “major leaguer waiting to happen”. In fact that OPS was the 5th worst in AAA in 2007.
Not ranked
That is where Elliot Johnson was found in our Meta-Analysis of Rays Top Prospects in which we looked at the Rays top 14 prospects from several different sources.
Not Ranked
That is where Elliot Johnson was found in the RaysBB Top 25 prospects list which polled numerous members of the Rays blogosphere including us (We actually had Johnson #16 in the list we submitted for RaysBB).
.440-1-8, .482 OBP, 1.082 OPS
Amazing what a month will do. Those are Elliot Johnson’s spring training numbers. In addition, he showed Joe Maddon that he is at least passable at several different positions, playing second, short, third and the outfield at different points during the spring.
We would have been less surprised if Edwin Jackson pitched 23 consecutive innings without a walk.
Mar 27
With only days to go before the regular season, trade talks are heating up with the Rays who are still in the market for a right fielder and have several pitchers that are out of options, including Scott Dohmann, Grant Balfour, and Jason Hammel.
Therefore it is time to update our Tampa Bay Rays Trade Value Index (TVI)…
The TVI ranks every player on the current 40-man roster and the top prospects in the organization. Our goal is to determine which players in the organization are the most valuable to the team. Ultimately, when looking at the rankings, the question should be, if the Rays could only keep one of two players (A or B) from the organization, which player would the front office choose to keep. If the answer is player A, he would be ranked ahead of player B.
The TVI is not based on player potential. Rather the rankings consider a number factors in addition to talent and good looks, such as potential, age, contract and depth of position in organization. This last factor comes into play if one player is stuck behind another player with more ability. For example, Fernando Perez would be a little higher due to his exceptional speed and strong OBP, but loses a little value because he has bad hair, and some more value because the team has BJ Upton firmly entrenched in center field for years to come. Another factor is team needs. A pitcher may be ranked ahead of a more “talented” position player because the team has a stronger need for pitching at the major league level.
We do use a very rough mathematical formula that gives differential weights to the various factors. This gives the list a starting point which is then tweaked based on the discussions of several committee members that may or may not have been under the influence of alcohol. Keep in mind that in many instances there is only a very slight difference in value from one position to the next in which we could easily make a strong argument for swapping two players in the rankings. That being said we are fairly confident that most players are within a couple of spots of where they should be. Or not.
Feel free to tell us where we screwed up in the comments.
[More detailed notes about specific players, follow the Rankings]
Click HERE or on the rankings for the entire list 1-59
A couple of notes on the rankings…
- The top of the rankings are much closer than many might think. Scott Kazmir is Scott Kazmir. On the other hand, James Shields is a little more of a mystery. If he can show that 2007 was not a fluke, he is under team control for the next seven years at a reasonable price. That is very valuable commodity.
- If BJ Upton can show that his high strikeout totals are nothing to be concerned about he is the new Carl Crawford. That is he is the Rays outfielder that all Yankees fans wish they had but for once they can’t just go out and buy him or trade whatever is in the system for him.
- David Price slides a few spots after his latest arm troubles that will delay his professional debut and put a nail in the coffin of any chance he might have had about a major league debut in 2008.
- Dioner Navarro gets a very strong ranking based on the shortage of young major league catchers and a strong second half offensively. There are many teams that would love to have a Navi in their lineup.
- In general veteran relief pitchers are ranked higher than their talent levels because those are the most sought-after commodities by contending teams.
- JP Howell is rising fast because of his new role as lefty relief pitcher that is good for 2-3 innings.
- For the prospects we always place a stronger value on players that have performed at the AA or AAA levels. As many of you know already we believe a player like Fernando Perez is more valuable than Desmond Jennings because he is closer to the majors even if Jennings may one day be the better major leaguer.
Mar 27
BJ Upton, Carl Crawford, Elliot Johnson, Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Jeff Bannon, Jeff Niemann, Joe Maddon, Joel Guzman, Rocco Baldelli, Scott Kazmir, Todd Jones, Willy Aybar Cork Gaines
Tampa Bay Rays (4 days until Opening Day)
Yesterday: Twins 4, Tampa Bay Rays 2.
The Good: The Rays used the league minimum three regulars yesterday. Two of those three, Jason Bartlett and Aki Iwamura the Rays new double-play combo combined for 5 of the Rays 6 hits, including two extra-base hits and both RBI. They also combined on yet another double-play…For the second straight game Rays pitchers did not walk a batter.
The Bad: Elliot Johnson committed two errors on the same play in center field. First he misplayed a hard hit ground ball single up the middle, and then threw the ball into the dugout. Not what Johnson wants trying to convince Joe Maddon that he can be the backup centerfielder for the first week of the season.
The Telling: Jason Bartlett added his 5th stolen base indicating that even though he will bat 9th, Joe Maddon is going to treat Bartlett like a second leadoff hitter and Bartlett is going to rack up steals this year.
DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…
- Obligatory Public Service Announcement: We will be hosting the 2nd Annual Opening Day Tampa Bay Rays Live Blog here at RI. So feel free to stop by and join in on the shenanigans as participation is certainly welcome.
- Two days ago we ran a poll on public opinion about the Rays decision to send Evan Longoria to the minors to begin the season. 52.3% of respondents think Longoria should have began the season with the Rays. 47.7% think the Rays did the right thing with sending Longoria to Durham, with 36.7% thinking the move should have been made at least in part because it is good for the future of the franchise. Interestingly, 60.0% think Dirtbag needs more seasoning although about half of those think he could finish the learning curve at the big league level. [Rays Index]
- Thanks to the great work of Stacy Long, we have our first look at what the rosters for each minor league affiliate might look like to begin the 2008 season. These are reflected in the CorkBoard in the sidebar. We say might because camp has yet to break and some of these assignments are only temporary based on needs. There are also several players still in big league camp that have yet to be reassigned. In addition, most of the players listed under the two short-season squads will remain in extended spring training and have yet to be assigned to a specific team. Finally, starting lineups for each team won’t be relevant until the season begins…However, we do see a number of big names in the system have taken their expected steps up in 2008. [Riverwalk Talk]
- Tigers pitcher Todd Jones takes a none-too-subtle shot at the Rays in the little side bar of his Sporting News blog. Don’t worry, you will find our none-too-subtle response in the comments section. [The Sporting News]
- Rocco Baldelli’s favorite sport to watch is Team USA softball…Me too Rocco, you sly dog. Me too. *nodding acceptingly* [Bradenton Herald]
- Interestingly, with Evan Longoria now in the minors, Willy Aybar may not be the opening day third baseman after all because of a nagging hamstring problem. If he is not ready to go, the starter would either be Elliot Johnson or Joel Guzman. [Tampa Tribune]
- Joe Maddon calls Jason Bartlett “probably the best base runner I’ve seen since Paul Molitor.” High praise indeed. And just another example that people should not consider Bartlett’s spot in the lineup (#9) a sign that Maddon does not have any faith in Bartlett’s abilities. Quite the opposite. As the #9 hitter, Bartlett and Iwamura provide Maddon with back-to-back leadoff hitters to get on base and wreak havoc on the basepaths in front of the Rays mini-muderer’s row of 2-3-4 hitters Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and BJ Upton. [Tampa Tribune]
- RJ Anderson urges Rays fans to look at the big picture and not panic about recent moves involving Jeff Niemann and Evan Longoria or the injury by Scott Kazmir. [DRays Bay]
- We are beginning to think the Rob Neyer at ESPN.com is a closet Rays fan. Yesterday, he tackles the issue of whether or not the Rays lied to the fans about why Evan Longoria was sent to the minors. [ESPN]
Of course the Rays lied. Teams lie to their fans weekly, if not daily (Christmas and New Year’s are usually lie-free). Baseball teams, like everybody else in the world, tell you whatever they think they can get away with, especially if they think it’s something you want to hear…For me, the bottom line is this: I don’t care if my favorite team lies, as long as it’s in the service of the franchise’s long-term health. And while the Rays look silly now, given how impressive Longoria was this spring, I think it was a lie worth telling. And a month or two from now when Longoria is beginning his late drive for Rookie of the Year, all should be forgiven.
- Rob Neyer also has his annual list of the “Top 50 for five years”. He previously gave us the positional lists in which Carl Crawford was named the top left fielder for the next five years and BJ Upton topped the list of center fielders…In the overall Top 50, Upton comes in at #15, Crawford is #36 and Evan Longoria comes in at #20 although Neyer notes that the 20-spot “might be too high, as Longoria hasn’t played a single inning in the majors. It might be too low, as any objective method will choose Longoria as the American League’s No. 1 or 2 third baseman over the next five years.” [ESPN]
- Jim Moloney calls the Rays one of the top 10 stories of 2008. [MLB]
- Stacy Long has a neat story about how the Rays acquired a new middle infielder (Jeff Bannon) for the Durham squad after Bulls manager Charlie Montoya met Bannon’s wife who was a nurse in the hospital where Montoya’s son was being treated. [Montgomery Advertiser]
