Using six different projection systems, one website projects the Rays to finish 82-80.
In 2006 and 2007 we called this “The Mathematical Definition of ‘No Chance In Hell’”. In 2008? It is now more like the “The Mathematical Definition of “Getting Warmer”.
The good folks over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog have finished their annual mathematical projections of the 2008 season. In short they run 1000 simulations for the 2008 season using player projections from six different sources including Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA, Diamond Mind, Sean Smith’s CHONE system, The Hardball Times and their own CAIRO.
Last season only the first four projections were used and when combined, the Rays were projected to win 71 games and made the playoffs 45 out 4000 seasons or about 1.1% of the time. In reality, the Rays lost 148 games and made the playoffs 0% of the time.
For more details on the individual projection systems and their level of historical accuracy, go HERE.
Now let’s take a look at how the Rays are projected for the 2008 season…
A few notes on the projections…
We previously mentioned that single iterations of the 2008 season using PECOTA and CHONE projection systems gave the Rays 88 and 89 wins respectively. At the time we tried to temper the excitement because they were only a single piece of data. We now see that both systems have slightly lower numbers when projected over 1,000 seasons.
These projections are based on a healthy Scott Kazmir.
Even the most conservative projection for the pitching staff (Diamond Mind) has the Rays allowing 100 fewer runs in 2008 while PECOTA has them bettering their ERA by over a run a game.
The average projections look a little like what I think most Rays fans would expect. A .500 record and about a 1 in 6 chance of making the playoffs if things break the right way.
We now have a mathemtical definition for “No Chance in Hell” [Rays Index] 2007 Mathematical Definition Of ‘No Chance In Hell’ [Rays Index]
The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Wednesday and is a look at how much confidence Rays fans have in the Tampa Bay Rays. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how fans feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence fans have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. Notes on this weeks agida-level can be found after the graph..
Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…
The most common response for “Confidence in 2008 Rays” was 7 (If things break right, they could be in race for playoffs) with 25.7%
The most common response for “Confidence in future of franchise” was 8 with 37.9%.
Confidence in the 2008 Rays ranged from 3 (Headed for another 90-loss season) to 8 (They will be in playoff contention all season)
Confidence in the future ranged from 3-10.
30.0% of respondents feel the Rays have a shot at the playoffs in 2008. That number is down from 63.4% last week…Fans are not taking the news about Scott Kazmir or Evan Longoria well at all.
71.4% of respondents feel the Rays should be at least a .500 team in 2008. That number is down from 91.6% last week.
Remember that story about former Devil Rays’ prospect Joey Gathright being drafted by the Rays after a scout witnessed him jumping over a car in the high school parking lot? Well, Gathright was never able to utilize that potential with the Rays and was eventually traded to the Royals for JP Howell. Well, Gathright finally put his mad hops to use in a baseball game the other night…Sometimes we wonder if Howell has enough arm strength to throw a ball over a car.
One year ago on Rays Index we learned that Matt Silverman was exploring the possibility of giving Vince Naimoli a more prominent and public role with the organization. We can only assume that since we have not heard Naimoli’s name since, that Silverman came to his senses.
The Impending Return Of Vince Naimoli [Rays Index]
The Good: Rays pitchers combined on a shutout without walking a batter and striking out 8. Jason Hammel was limited to 4 innings in the game so that the relievers could catch up on their work (Hammel continued to work in bullpen after his 4 innings), but was very effective. He did not allow a run and gave up only 3 hits and did not walk a batter. He struck out 2…Five relievers, that will all be on the opening day roster, combined for 5 shutout innings, with only 2 hits and no walks with 6 strikeouts…Another errorless game…Jonny Gomes was 3-4 with his 4th home run of the spring…Eric Hinske had a double and a RBI.
The Bad: Guess we could put Cliff Floyd here for going 0-3 and lowering his spring average to just north of the Mendoza Line (.205), but that is a stretch as spring numbers don’t mean much, but they mean even less for veterans.
The Telling: Elliot Johnson started at short and played the first 8 innings. Right off the bat in the first he successfully turned a double play and later handled a ground ball cleanly. Johnson needed to show he could handle short if he is going to be a utility player off the bench while Ben Zobrist is on the DL.
DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…
Obligatory Public Service Announcement: We will be hosting the 2nd Annual Opening Day Tampa Bay Rays Live Blog here at RI. So feel free to stop by and join in on the shenanigans as participation is certainly welcome.
In case you missed it late yesterday, we have a poll going to gauge the reaction of RAYSHEADS to the demotion of Evan Longoria and see what you think the Rays should have done. [Rays Index]
Several Rays are not happy about the demotion of Evan Longoria including Jonny Gomes…They must not have asked Willy Aybar and Joel Guzman their thoughts. [St. Pete Times]
If I say I commit to winning, he’s on my team for sure. I think everybody wearing a Tampa Bay hat and uniform wants that guy here. I don’t think it’s a good day on the players’ end and for everybody in a uniform.
Joe Maddon is taking a very a conservative approach with Scott Kazmir. Kid K will play catch the next few days and may throw from a mound some time next week. And yes, he was officially placed on the DL. [The Heater]
Gary Shelton shows that the Rays will improve in 2008 and the biggest reason is the bullpen, especially considering the Rays in essence traded Shawn Camp, Ruddy Lugo and Brian Stokes for Troy Percival, Dan Wheeler and Trever Miller. [St. Pete Times]
This is the extreme example of the uninformed bashing that some people are tossing at the Rays since the Evan Longoria demotion…And for the record, the Rays do not have the worst winning percentage in baseball history. There are 20 franchises in history with lower winning percentages. [Mike Responts]
Drays Bay found a stat that shows that Dioner Navarro is one of the better catchers in baseball at blocking pitches in the dirt and preventing runs. [DRays Bay]
Most previews should have this title. At least this blog is honest enough to admit it, and that earns points in our book. [The Ballclub]
Willy Aybar is trying to put his troubled past behind and is relishing his fresh start. [St. Pete Times]
Brian Anderson, who attempted a comeback from Tommy John surgery this spring with the Rays, has accepted a position with the team in which he will assist pitching coach Jim Hickey and the front office with scouting. [Rays Report]
A few notes on the projections…
