Archive for March 20th, 2008

Mar 20

[EVAN LONGORIA] Media Incorrectly Predicts Timing Of Longoria’s Promotion

Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun Cork Gaines 11 Comments »

We just wanted to take a moment to clarify a couple of erroneous reports yesterday in the mainstream media concerning the service time of Evan Longoria. Bill Chastain of MLB.com, Marty York of Canada Metro and John Romano of the St. Pete Times reported that the Tampa Bay Rays would be able to delay Longoria’s free agency clock by one year if he remains in the minors until the end of April.

From MLB.com: From a business standpoint, if Longoria begins the season with the team, he’d likely be eligible for free agency following the 2013 season. Meanwhile, delaying his Major League debut until mid-April would delay his free agency until after the 2014 season.

From Metro Canada: If Longoria opens the season with Tampa, he will likely be eligible for free agency after 2013. If he is in the minor leagues until late April, however, he can’t be a free agent until 2014.

From St. Pete Times: If Longoria is on the roster on March 31, he will probably be eligible for free agency after 2013. If he is in the minors until late April, he won’t be a free agent until after 2014.

The problem with this assessment is that a promotion at the end of April does not delay the arbitration clock which is of more importance for a player that the Rays hope to have around for longer than six years.

Normally a player is eligible for arbitration after 3 years and free agency after 6 years of service time. In baseball’s most recent collective bargaining agreement, a year of service time is defined as 172 days. However, of the players that fall shot of this mark, the top 17% with at least 2 years of service time are also granted arbitration eligibility. These players are called “Super 2s”. The exact amount of service time varies from year-to-year, but has been as low as 128 days and as high as 140 days although the number is usually 130-135.

If we count backwards from the end of the regular season (Sept. 28), a player that is called up on May 24 and remains on the roster for the remainder of the regular season will accumulate 128 days of service time. A player that is called up on May 12 would accumulate 140 days of service time.

The Rays will eventually want to sign Longoria to a long-term deal and the parameters of that deal will be more immediately affected by when Longoria becomes eligible for arbitration as that will be the first year that he can expect a large increase in annual salary.

So if we assume that Longoria plays well in Durham and the team does indeed consider service time in their plans, we can make an educated guess that Longoria will be promoted to the Rays on or after May 26 (Memorial Day). Promotion on this day would give Longoria 126 service days this year and in all likelihood will delay his arbitration/free agency clock by one year. Last season the Brewers accomplished this with their top prospect Ryan Braun by waiting until May 24 to promote him to the majors.

On May 26, the Rays will be in midst of a 10-game home stand and will be starting a new series on that day against the Rangers. In addition, if the Rays do get off to a solid start, the holiday plus the debut of The Dirtbag could push the crowd to record levels for a non-opening day, non-Yankees contest. Not to mention, the buzz of Longoria’s arrival could push attendance for all seven games remaining on that home stand.

It sure seems like Memorial Day works for both Longoria and the team. Mark your calendars. If Longoria is demoted to Durham, he will most likely make his major league debut on May 26…Not mid- or late-April as reported above.

Mar 20

[EVAN LONGORIA] Dirtbag-O-Meter: 11 Days Until Opening Day

Dirtbag-O-Meter, Evan Longoria, Willy Aybar Cork Gaines 1 Comment »

We call him The Dirtbag because of how he plays and because he played college ball at Long Beach State whose baseball team has the coolest mascot in sports…The Dirtbags.

The biggest question mark for the Tampa Bay Rays in Spring Training is whether or not Evan Longoria will be named the opening day third baseman. Manager Joe Maddon has repeatedly stated that the decision will be based less on his stats, and more on how the 22-year old handles himself on a day-to-day basis and how well The Dirtbag adjusts to everyday life as a major leaguer. From now until the Rays announce a decision on Longoria’s fate, we will track The Dirtbag’s progress through his numbers, our own observations and quotes from Maddon and Andrew Friedman…

Notes on the Dirtbag-O-Meter…

Yesterday at the plate: Evan Longoria started at third going 0-2 with an intentional walk…In the second inning, he struck out looking with one out and a man on first. In the 4th he flew out to center to end the frame. In the 6th inning with runners on second and third with only one out, Longoria was intentionally walked by Jamie Moyer. He would later score the Rays third run. He was removed after 6 innings. In the field, he handled his only fielding chance, a pop up.

Quotes:

“I don’t know, man, that’s just a sensitive topic right now,” Carl Crawford said. “So I don’t really know the reaction that guys are going to have [if Longoria doesn't make the team] just yet….I know every day, every game he plays, we want him as a team, for sure. As the days go by, and every day we get to see him more, we want him on this team more and more.” [Tampa Bay Rays]

Carlos Pena conceded that “it’s obvious how talented Longoria is” and “we all want him here, every single one of us…But we also understand that there is a process to his development, what is planned for him… There also might be some business advantages that would go perfectly for him and his process. We understand that there are other things that are out of our control and Longoria’s control….It doesn’t necessarily mean we should take it as a negative…We know he’s going to be in the Major Leagues very soon. And he’s going to help out. We think he could be here right now. Every single one of us wants him here. But yes, we are mature and professional enough to understand.” [Tampa Bay Rays]

“I’m not necessarily worried about it,” Maddon said. “It just comes down to doing what you think is the right thing. Because many times you have to make a decision that people in the clubhouse do not particularly get at this particular time. And that’s OK.” [Tampa Bay Rays]

“Because we’ve been doing so well,” Crawford said, “you wouldn’t want to think that one player could deflate the whole thing. I hope that we can still have this little swagger we’ve got. But we’ll just have to wait and see...We’d rather have Longoria, but we feel like we can still win. We can hold it down until he comes. We know we’ll get him at some point. If he doesn’t start out with us, we can do what we need to do.” [Tampa Bay Rays]

Summary: With Willy Aybar nursing a sore hamstring, The Dirtbag started his fourth straight game. Longoria continues to play like a seasoned pro in the spring. The intentional walk yesterday was his tenth free pass of the spring. Only four players have more. He has a .477 OBP and a .719 SLG…But none of this is going to be good enough. After reading the quotes above we are now resigned to the idea that The Dirtbag is probably starting the year in Durham. With a decision pending today or tomorrow, Crawford sounds like he is bracing himself and the rest of the team. Maddon sounds like the decision has already been made even if he is just conjecturing. Pena sounds like a realist and understands what is about to happen…It sucks. We just hope the Rays don’t finish a couple of games short of the playoffs, because Longoria is worth a couple of wins over two months compared to Aybar or Guzman or Hinske.

Mar 20

[THE HANGOVER] Edwin Jackson Reminds Us Why He Drives Us Nuts

Andrew Friedman, BJ Upton, Edwin Jackson, Evan Longoria, James Shields, Kenny Lofton, Reid Brignac, Scott Kazmir Cork Gaines 1 Comment »

Tampa Bay Rays (11 days until Opening Day)

Yesterday: Tampa Bay Rays 3, Phillies 1.

The Good: This is why we hate Edwin Jackson. He will pitch like Bob Gibson about once a month and you start thinking man, what if he did this all the time, he could win a Cy Young. But then the next three starts he will get knocked around and he walk the ballpark. Yesterday Jackson retired the first 11 batters before hitting a batter. He worked 5.2 innings, striking out 7 and walking only 1, allowing 1 run on 3 hits. It should be noted that the Phillies were without several of their regulars and there was a very stiff wind blowing in…Troy Percival and Scott Dohmann each added a perfect inning of relief…Evan Longoria drew his 10th walk of the spring.

The Bad: Elliot Johnson came on i the 7th inning. He walked to lead off the inning and then stole second and third base. Bad? He showed his youth and inexperience by stealing third base with two outs. Now. We weren’t there so maybe Johnson was able to get a lead where he was standing 3 feet from third base leaving him no choice. But if that was not the case, we expect Johnson got a little talking to from Joe Maddon in the dugout later on [Ed. note: see comments for explanation]…Edwin Jackson hit two batters…

The Telling: Mike DiFelice got his third start of the spring behind the plate. He now has logged 32 innings behind the plate. By comparison,the likely backup catcher, Shawn Riggans has 5 starts and 35 innings, but Josh Paul only has 1 start and 18 innings. Heck. Hector Gimenez has a start and 23 innings at catcher. Paul is not going to be on the opening day roster. Right now it looks like Riggans unless his hand becomes a nagging situation. In that case, DiFelice is the next option.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

  • In case you missed it yesterday afternoon. The RAYSHEAD Army is now accepting new members. [Rays Index]
  • To say that Edwin Jackson was “mediocre” in 2007 seems a little soft, right? He was 5-15 with 5.76 ERA with about 5 walks per 9 innings. That is pretty friggin’ bad. [Tampa Bay Rays]
  • Carl Crawford called the situation with Evan Longoria “a sensitive topic” in the clubhouse. The idea is that the team may choose to send The Dirtbag down to the minors to start the season, rather than field the best team possible. Andrew Friedman says Longoria’s arbitration/free agency clock is not an issue, noting that at some point the team will want to work on a long-term deal. This seems dubious at best since even long-term deals prior to arbitration and free agency consider when a player will become arbitration-eligible, although this did not happen with James Shields’ new deal as his salary only jumps from $1.5 million to $2.5 million in his first arbitration year. [Tampa Bay Rays]
  • Several Rays talk about BJ Upton and how he is only going to get better. [Bradenton Herald]

“We haven’t seen him play a full season,” Crawford said. “In years to come, he’s going to get better and better. Last year was just the tip of the iceberg, at least in my mind. I’m just happy I get to play alongside of him. You don’t get to play alongside a guy like that every time. It’s rare. It’s very rare.”

  • Jayson Stark is reporting that the Rays made an offer to Kenny Lofton, that he turned down. We have to assume that the offer was incentive-laden and Lofton may be looking for more guaranteed money or he is waiting until a contender loses an outfielder. [ESPN]
  • Rays of Light isn’t going to lose any sleep over not having Kenny Lofton. We agree. [Rays of Light]
  • No surprise here…James Shields will start on opening day. [Tampa Bay Rays]
  • Joe Maddon was vague in when asked about Scott Kazmir’s schedule. It sounds like they are truly taking this day-to-day. [Tampa Bay Rays]
  • The Bradenton Herald profiles Reid Brignac. [Bradenton Herald]
  • Bill Chastain wonders if the Rays can live up to the hype in 2008. [Tampa Bay Rays]
  • Rays of Light has their latest roster projection. [Rays of Light]