The Rays Confidence Graph will appear every Wednesday and will have a permanent home in the sidebar. The graph is designed to give us a look at how our emotional bias as Rays fans fluctuates through time. The “confidence” in the team is an inexact measure of how we feel about the team’s current strength as well as how much confidence we have in the franchise for the next 3-4 years. Notes on this weeks agida-level can be found after the graph..

Notes on the RI Confidence Graph…

  • This weeks graph is the first in which the ratings were generated from a fan survey. All values prior to this week’s are a reflection of the views of the Rays Index staff and any number of alcoholic beverages. As can be seen, fans on average have more confidence in the Rays than we do.
  • As can be seen in the first poll, nearly half of the respondents gave the 2008 Rays a confidence rating of 7 and more than half believe the team has a shot at the playoffs. However, the confidence is skewed downward giving an average value of 6.2. All of the votes that were more than 1 value away from the most common response (7) were below that value, suggesting that there there is still a negative attitude towards the current incarnation of the Tampa Bay Rays.
  • As can be seen in the second poll, again nearly half of the respondents gave the franchise a confidence rating of 8, however in this case, the results were slightly skewed toward the positive, giving an average value of 8.1. In this case, there were considerably more votes that were more than 1 position greater than the most common response (8) than there were values more than one position lower. This suggests that there is a general sense of “hope” with the franchise.
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6 Comments

  1. Anonymous says:

    that is an awful lot of confidence for a team that has never won more than 70 games

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  2. Devil Ray Guevara says:

    i know the team is filled with tons of Grade A talent both in the majors and the minors, but the comments that the team is losing money should really scare people a little more.

    if the stadium proposal falls through the team will ABSOLUTELY begin to talk about having to move.

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  3. The Professor says:

    true but that may not have any direct impact on the team in the next 3-4 years, unless of course it is a decisive factor in whether or not to retain guys like Kaz and CC.

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  4. Robert Rittner says:

    There is not one piece of evidence that the failure of the stadium vote would lead the Rays to consider moving. Nothing they have said or done suggests any such thing. Every public statement or action, and as far as anyone can tell, every decision made by the Rays, points to them staying put.

    As for confidence, the vote has nothing to do with the team that only once reached 70 wins. That was a team with Rob Bell, Hendrickson, Zambrano, Brazelton & Waechter taking most of the starts, and with a 20 year old Kazmir getting just 8 appearances. It was a team with Toby Hall, an over the hill Tino, Rey Sanchez, Blum, Jose Cruz Jr. and Robert Fick playing major roles in the offense. That was a team with no plan for building a contender and no program for developing the talent that was becoming more common in the system.

    The team many people are showing some confidence in is run by different people and staffed by different players. It is a completely different team, and not only in its name and colors. It is a team and management that is pretty much universally perceived as smart, practical and committed to winning. I, for one, had no confidence in the 70 win team, and even less in the 67 win team that followed despite its strong second half. But I have a great deal of confidence in the 2008 and future Rays.

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  5. Robert Rittner says:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7111

    For some confirmation of the reason some people have confidence in the Rays' future, click on the link above to BP. It is not just that the author is optimistic about the Rays in general, but note his comments on management's approach to building the team.

    And in my view, even more meaningful are the quotations from Rays' officials. I realize they can be read as typical pap and PR, but I think they represent a clear-headed and honest assessment of what the Rays are trying to accomplish and how. Rather than pap, I see them as precise and far-sighted.

    As for comments that the team is losing money, I am at a loss as to why fans even react to that kind of statement. My guess is accountants can prove anything they want along those lines, and it is de rigeur for every team to claim it is losing money. It's like judging a person's religious views because he says "god bless you" when someone sneezes. The Yankees recently announced they too are losing money; should Yankee fans be worried? At the same time that the Rays made the announcement, they increased their payroll significantly. Seems to me that is the more telling information about their intentions.

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  6. Robert Rittner says:

    If you insist on recycling the canard that Maddon set .500 as a goal I feel impelled to continue to object. What is galling is that he said almost exactly the opposite, so you are not just misquoting but are attributing to him the reverse of his point.

    Now were you to state that you feel his statement of his goal was tepid and did not inspire confidence, I would disagree, but not object. Were you to say you would prefer him to exhibit more enthusiasm and expectations of winning a title, I am sure someone would mock you (and him should he have done it) as unrealistic Polyannas who should not try to fool people. But fine, you think differently and can make a case that the statement dissipated confidence. I disagree, but respect the viewpoint.

    But the way you state it is simply misrepresentation of what he said and so whatever follows is not credible. The fact that you stated it once does not justify keeping it in the chart. It was wrong then, and it is wrong now, and its constant repetition magnifies the wrongness of it.

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