Archive for February 8th, 2008

Feb 08

[2008 ROSTER] 2008 25-Man Roster And Starting Lineup Projections Redux

25-man Roster Cork Gaines 5 Comments »

The 2008 25-man roster prediction is based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consummated and free agents are signed.

We are now less than a week away from Spring Training and after a couple of more free agent signings, we now have a much better idea of what the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays roster will look like.

[Ed. note: The Rays depth chart on the official website was updated today and lists Evan Longoria as the starting third baseman. This is likely one person's "best guess" as the team has yet to make an official announcement. However, it could be precluding a Monday announcement. We will have to wait and see. Everything else on the depth chart jives with what we have here, except they list Shawn Riggans as the backup catcher.]

Notes on the projection can be found after the roster…

A FEW NOTES ON THE 25-MAN ROSTER…

  • Lineup: Now that Willy Aybar’s legal issues are behind him, it looks once agains as if he is either the starter or in a platoon with Joel Guzman at third base. However, we do give Eric Hinske an outside shot at winning the job in spring training. Again, none of this should have a bearing on what the team decides to do with Evan Longoria, as the team will do what they think is best for Longoria and not what is best for the opening day lineup. However, all signs indicate a start to the year in Durham.
  • Bench: Jonny Gomes is the only lock and he really isn’t part of the bench. He will be in the lineup most days in right or at DH. The rest of the bench is undecided, but Josh Paul and Ben Zobrist are pretty close to locks. Zobrist is really the Rays only available backup middle infielder and Paul is familiar with the staff. Guzman on the other hand could be the starting third baseman, part of a platoon, on the bench, or off the team. He is he big question mark.
  • Rotation: Not much has changed. Top 3 are locked in. Andy Sonnanstine is pretty close. That leaves four pitchers (Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann and JP Howell) for one spot. That is a nice predicament to have. If the season started today, we go with Jackson, but we are going to keep a close eye on Niemann. It is our feeling that the team wants Niemann to win this spot. He will be 25 and it is time to see what he can do.
  • Bullpen: The signing of Trever Miller fills one of the last remaining open spots on the roster. Jim Hickey’s recent comments about Gary Glover gives five players guaranteed jobs. One of the last two relief spots will go to one of the “losers” of the starting rotation battle. That leaves one spot in the bullpen up for grabs. Juan Salas? Scott Dohmann? Grant Balfour? Your guess is as good as ours.
Feb 08

[FRIDAY HAPPY HOUR] Rays Of Light Rebuts Our Stance On Scott Kazmir

Andy Sonnanstine, David Price, Edwin Jackson, Jake McGee, James Shields, Matt Garza, Rays of Light, Scott Kazmir, Wade Davis Cork Gaines 1 Comment »

Yesterday we speculated that due to the current atmosphere in Major League Baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays would likely trade Scott Kazmir prior to the 2009 season. Today Rays of Light plays “Devil’s Advocate” to our obviously infallible argument, and suggests why the Rays should not trade their ace.

Let’s take a look at their key points…

After all of the strides that the Rays have made this offseason towards trying to build a winning teeam and finally having a chance to compete in the AL East, I just don’t think it behooves the club to consider trading its best player when at the cusp of becoming a winning team.

This is an excellent point and the strongest argument for keeping Kazmir around for 2009 and possibly 2010. As was pointed out in our comments, the Rays are in a much different situation than the Orioles are with Erik Bedard. The O’s are rebuilding. However, we feel that losing Kid K may not require a step-back in performance for the ballclub. The addition of Matt Garza, the extra year of maturity for Andy Sonnanstine and (gasp) Edwin Jackson, not to mention the emergence of David Price could make Kazmir’s loss moot. Most importantly, if the Rays want to remain consistently competitive as stated by the front office as their goal, then in the long-term, the Rays may be better off with the four or five prospects than they would be with Kazmir.

Scott Kazmir is more valuable to the Rays because of the amount of money he could help bring to the team by leading the Rays into a pennant race and, hopefully, winning a spot in the playoffs.

Again, we think the team can be just as competitive without Kazmir, especially 5-6 years down the road with all the prospects the Rays would receive in return. We have no idea how to quantify the effect of one star on the attendance for the Rays. They could very well be right. If it is true that the Rays would make more money from having Kazmir as opposed to not having him, then the team may indeed keep him around.

The thought of Kazmir being able to jump ship and getting nothing but draft picks back in return is a bit upsetting, but I think it can be spun in a way to make the franchise look like the good guys and maintain a strong fan base rather than suffering a severe backlash.

The Rays would only receive two first round picks for the loss of Kazmir via free agency. And consider the clubs that would be able to afford his services and we have to assume that the first pick would not come until late in the first round. The Rays can certainly obtain one or two good players via this route, but they would not be nearly as much of a certainty as prospects from higher levels. And we highly doubt there is any way to spin this in a positive light. The better argument is to trade Kazmir after 2009.

They can make some kind of cursory offer – something along the lines of 5 years, $60 million – that sounds fair and reasonable to the layman and makes Kazmir look like nothing more than just another greedy athlete on his way out the door when he rejects it.

If the Rays did this just prior to free agency…first Kazmir and his agent would laugh at the Rays. Then the fans would be angry. And finally the rest of baseball would point and say “That’s the Rays being the Rays”. A “cursory” offer would be 5 years/$75 million. And that is still going to come up two years short. Don’t overlook the years and just stare at the numbers after the dollar sign. The number of years will be just as important to a young pitcher.

And for what would he be traded? A few prospects and the hope that one of the young arms in the organization develops to be his replacement? Isn’t that the kind of pie-in-the-sky thinking that gets franchises in trouble? You KNOW what you’re getting with Scott Kazmir; Jake McGee on the other hand? Not so much.

True. But Kazmir is not the Rays only good/great pitcher. They still have James Shields and Garza. And the Rays are in the enviable position of having a number of top pitching prospects that are close to the majors. If McGee doesn’t pan out, there is still Wade Davis. And if Davis doesn’t pan out there is still Price. And if Price doesn’t pan out, etc…In other words…Eventually somebody will step up and fill Kid K’s shoes.

He is the best chance of the Rays winning the World Series, and there’s no price tag that can be put on that.

At the end of the day, THIS is the big question. Would the Rays be willing to sacrifice a bit of the future for the chance to take one shot at glory in 2009 or 2010? We honestly do not know the answer to this question, but everything the front office has ever said suggests that their #1 priority is to build a team that can be competitive every year.

Trading Scott Kazmir after the 2008 season is the best chance to achieve the goal of building a consistent winner.

Scott Kazmir Likely To Be Traded Following 2008 Season [Rays Index]
Rebuttal: Scott Kazmir Likely To Be Traded Following 2008 Season [Rays of Light]

Feb 08

[HOT STOVE RUMORS] The Rays Are Not Talking To The A’s About Joe Blanton

DRaysBay, Joe Blanton, Ken Rosenthal, Matt Garza, Rays Anatomy Cork Gaines 11 Comments »

This is what we hate about baseball’s new “Hot Stove League”…

By now most of you have heard about the Rays supposed interest in Oakland’s Joe Blanton.

First let’s go back to the original source. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports had a video report in which he talks about the possibility of the A’s trading Blanton.

From the report:

At least two teams are showing significant interest in Blanton, one of which figures to be the Reds…The Twins, desperate for a veteran starting pitcher, could be one possibility for Blanton. The Rays, deep in prospects, could be another.

It was just a guess. Pure speculation. Never mind that there are about 20 reasons not to make this trade.

Seems like a non-story right? Apparently not. We get 800 words from Rays Anatomy, and we get not one, but two posts from DRays Bay, including 750 words from RJ Anderson.

In Anderson’s defense, he actually takes the stance that the trade would be a bad idea (he is right), but both RA and DRB write their pieces as if the Rays are indeed talking to the A’s about a trade, despite a lack of evidence to suggest this is true.

from Rays Anatomy:

Having made one move for Matt Garza earlier this off-season, general manager Andrew Friedman is once again in the mix for another possible arm to add to the starting staff.

from DRays Bay:

I’m not going to divulge into the price for him, because like everyone outside of the Oakland and Tampa offices I simply have no clue what it is or will be.

Anderson does refer to the talks as “Joe Blanton rumors”, but the only reason it is a “rumor” in the first place is because these sites misrepresented the words of one person. Besides, does a rumor that has zero merit require 750 words? For comparison, most Rays columns in the Tampa Tribune and the St. Pete Times run between 500-600 words, and those are rarely based on the whimsical guessing of a FoxSports.com writer.

This is not meant as a referendum on either of these two sites. If a writer thinks trading for Blanton is a good idea or a bad idea, they should tell us that and why. But there is no need to present this as something that may actually happen when there is zero evidence that it actually could.

This is something that is not restricted to blogs. In fact journalists are also guilty, more so because of their wider audiences. Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote an article in which he speculated that the Rays would trade Scott Kazmir this off-season. His source? “An executive familiar with Tampa’s thinking”. For all we know, he talked to the VP of a Starbucks. Next thing we knew the rumor was everywhere, that the Rays were seeking to trade Kazmir.

In today’s baseball landscape, everybody loves a good rumor. But many are not careful as to how they handle those rumors, turning something as simple as one person’s “guess” into a full-fledged trade negotiation between two teams.

We understand it is a slow news week, but we owe it to Rays fans to report the happenings in the Raysiverse accurately and fairly. A typical fan that reads these sites should not have to take the time to read the original source. They should be able to read articles like these and know that the “rumor” was never so. Otherwise, we have to deal with a dozen emails asking us what we think about Blanton, which makes us write 600 words on why the rumors are toilet, when we would rather be talking about how hot Ben Zobrists’ wife is.

By the way…the second team that Rosenthal was trying to guess? It was the Dodgers.

Why Trade For Joe Blanton? [Rays Anatomy]
Rays Interested In Blanton? [DRays Bay]
A Game of Large, Grotesque Shadows [DRays Bay]
Scott-Stove League [New York Post]
Blanton May Be Traded [MLB Trade Rumors]

Feb 08

[THE HANGOVER] Opening Day To Feature More Bucs Jerseys Than Rays Jerseys In The Stands

Carlos Pena, Curt Schilling, Mike Alstott, New Stadium, Trever Miller, Willy Aybar Cork Gaines No Comments »

Tampa Bay Rays (6 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Just the links this morning…we will be back in a little while.

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

  • We thought we were going to have to retire our #40 Bucs jersey permanently, but it looks like it will get at least one more day in the sun dome. Mike Alstott will throw out the first pitch at the Rays home opener. Might there actually be more Bucs jerseys in the stands than Rays jerseys during the home opener. Magic 8 Ball says ‘Absolutely’. [TampaBay.com]
  • Rays of Light breaks down how Trever Miller has fared against some of the better left-handed bats in the AL East. Verdict is, Miller will make a strong situational lefty for the Rays. [Rays of Light]
  • Despite his most recent spat of legal issues, Willy Aybar is expected to join the team for the beginning of Spring Training. [TampaBay.com]
  • Carlos Pena is only 50-1 to hit the most home runs in baseball in 2008. The Rays are currently 200-1 to win the World Series, tied with 5 other teams for the longest odds. They are 100-1 to win the AL, tied with the Orioles and the Royals and 50-1 to win the AL East, ahead of the Orioles at 100-1. The Red Sox are the current faves to win the World Series at 7-2, trailed closely by the Mets and the Yankees, both at 5-1. [Vegas Watch]
  • Curt Schilling has a serious shoulder injury that may ultimately require season-ending surgery. This makes us giggle a little. Not because we enjoy schadenfreude, but because we wonder if those few people still think it would have been such a great idea to have him on the Rays for 2008. That would have been money well spent. [Boston Herald]
  • The St. Pete City Council voted yesterday to accept community input on the fate of the land that is currently the home of Al Lang Field, if the area is not used for the Rays new stadium. a portion of the community would like to see the area become a park. [TBO]