Archive for January 23rd, 2008

Jan 23

[2008 ROSTER] 2008 25-Man Roster And Starting Lineup Projections

25-man Roster Cork Gaines 5 Comments »

The 2008 25-man roster prediction is based only on players currently within the organization and will be updated when trades are consummated and free agents are signed.

We are now less than a month away from Spring Training and after the recent flurry of contracts signings with the Rays arbitration-eligible players, we now have a much better idea of what the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays roster will look like and what the opening day payroll will be. Yesterday we take a look at the projected 40-man roster and payroll. Today we update our 25-man roster projection.

Notes on the projection can be found after the roster…

A FEW NOTES ON THE 25-MAN ROSTER…

  • Lineup: The only spot in the starting lineup that has not been resolved is third base. We are now working under the assumption that Evan Longoria will begin the season in Durham in order to delay the start of his arbitration clock gain some more experience. This means that the most-days third baseman will either be Willy Aybar or Joel Guzman. We are pulling for Guzman because he has the better glove and there is a chance he could get hot and pique the interest of another team before the trade deadline. In reality, the starter will most likely be Aybar. It is not a terrible move. He does sport a career OBP of .387.
  • Bench: Only one of the four bench spots seems locked at this point (Jonny Gomes), and really he will be part of the RF/DH Ghidorah. MIke DiFelice’s experience will almost certainly give him the backup catcher’s position, but Shawn Riggans will be given a shot. The odd-man out at third base (Joel Guzman or Willy Aybar) will served as the “utility” player, but we wonder if Aybar can handle several positions he has never played. The team will most likely give the last spot to Ben Zobrist to be the back-up shortstop. He is also a switch-hitter. If Aybar is the third baseman, and Guzman is on the bench, the Rays will need Benny Boo Boo as the only “left-handed” bat.
  • Rotation: Five will compete for the final two spots, including the three incumbents Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine and Jason Hammel as well as JP Howell and Jeff Niemann. Jackson and Hammel are out of options, but that only means a little. If one does not make the roster the team will pull off a trade before opening day. Out of Jackson, Hammel and Howell, one will be in the bullpen as the long reliever/spot starter. Sonnanstine seems to have the firmest grip on his spot. That leaves one spot and four pitchers. If the season started today, Jackson would have the spot and Hammel would be in the bullpen. But the Rays are going to give Jeff Niemann every chance to take that spot from Jackson. He will be 25 on opening day and should be 100% healthy.
  • Bullpen: The 7th, 8th and 9th innings are spoken-for. The long-reliever will be one of the odd-men out of the rotation. That leaves three spots. One will go to a left-handed reliever the team has yet to sign. The final two spots will be a battle in spring training between Gary Glover, Scott Dohmann and Juan Salas. Salas is the only member of that group with a minor league option, but if he out-performs the other two in the spring he will be on the roster and one of the other two will either be traded or DFA’d.
Jan 23

[THE HANGOVER] Don’t Expect A Let Down, BJ Upton Is That Good

BJ Upton, James Shields, Justin Upton, Michael Cuddyer, Robinson Cano, Rocco Baldelli Cork Gaines 2 Comments »

Tampa Bay Rays (22 days until pitchers and catchers report)
Rays Anatomy is up with their next installment of “The Great Debates”. This time it is BJ Upton versus Robinson Cano. Before we get to Upton, let us say that we would take either on our team. In fact, for those of you that have not watched many Yankees games the past three years or have been blinded by the lineup filled with $15-25 million dollar players, Cano is one of the best hitters in baseball. Not one of the best young hitters. One of the best hitters. Period. If he laid the bat a little bit flatter in his stance, we would swear Rod Carew came out of retirement.

However, today we want to rant about BJ Upton and all the nay-sayers that think Upton is in for a big let-down in 2008. We are going to pick on EJ Fagan from “The Great Debates” series, but rest-assured, we have seen this exact same argument in a dozen different places.

For people that have not seen Upton play on a regular basis and try to evaluate his 2007 season, they must rely on new-age stats to try and poke holes in his breakout performance. This is fine with most players, but may not necessarily work for a player like BJ Upton. These stats often look at factors like, where the ball landed, fly ball vs. ground ball, lined drive percentage, etc. Fagan uses three of the most common stat lines (BABIP, HR/FB, LineDrive%) when evaluating Upton. In all three cases, Upton’s numbers in 2007 were higher than normal/expected and on paper indicate that Upton was the beneficiary of good luck.

The problem with these stats is that they cannot account for one factor that could explain Upton’s numbers. That factor is speed. As in bat speed and foot speed.

First bat speed: Upton hits the ball hard, more consistently than almost any other player we have ever seen. Upton is able to generate an enormous amount of bat speed and as a result, when he does make contact the ball explodes off of his bat. This can very easily lead to inflated states that make it appear as if Upton is “lucky”. Take a hard ground ball, five feet to the left of the short stop. Upton hits the ball hard enough that a ball in that spot has a good chance of going through for a base hit. If a player like Dioner Navarro hits a ball in the exact same spot, it is probably an out. In other words, Upton can hit the ball to more parts of the field than average player in which the swing results in a base hit. He has more room for error. That is not “luck”. It is talent.

Now consider foot speed: Upton is fast. One of the faster players in baseball. Now take the same ground ball in the previous paragraph and let’s assume the short stop fields the ball. He is moving to his right, towards the hole and away from first base. There are not many shortstops in baseball, if any, that will throw out Upton. Now again, let’s consider Navarro. In his case, the shortstop has a chance to set his feet and make a strong throw. Navarro will probably be out.

Those two factors have a direct bearing on stats such as BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). In 2007 Upton posted a .393 BABIP, which is very high. His expected BABIP was .316. As we have shown Upton’s BABIP should be higher than an average player, and should be higher than would be expected based on where the ball was hit. In addition, Upton’s bat speed can explain his high rate of home runs and line drives. Plain and simple, the guy hits the ball hard. More fly balls will end up as home runs and more balls will be rated as line drives.

It is natural to be skeptical of breakout performance such as Upton’s. But in this case, the regular stat line does not lie. Upton is that good. He will continue to strikeout a lot, but it will not keep him from becoming the first 30-30 player in Rays history in 2008.

The “Great Debates” – BJ Upton vs. Robsinson Cano [Rays Anatomy]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

  • The Heater is reporting that the Rays will announce a long-term contract for James Shields. A 2 p.m. press conference has been scheduled. The deal is believed to be for four years and $12 million, with three option years that would bring the total package up to $38 million with another $2 million in incentives. As was noted in the comments of yesterday’s post the deal is not likely to have a significant impact on the Rays’ payroll in 2008 or 2009. Shields was set to make close to the league minimum the next two years, and the new contract may give him a slight boost, but it will not be for more than $0.5-0.7 million each year. [TampaBay.com]
  • Rocco Baldelli was in Scotland last week and took in a Celtic football match. The Daily Record interviewed the Rays center fielder DH. We love how they refer to Baldelli as “a man who has made his name and his fortune from agility, pace and handling skills.” Sometimes it is hard to remember that Rocco is a pretty good baseball player. [DailyRecord.com via TBO]
  • The Sporting News ranks the Rays outfield as the 7th best in the AL. [The Sporting News]

Crawford and Upton have a rare combination of speed and power. Upton could grow into a 30-homer , 30-steal performer. Gomes, like many Rays, strikes out way too much.

  • BJ Upton, Justin Upton and Michael Cuddyer are set to build an indoor sports training facility in Virginia Beach, Virginia. [PilotOnline.com]