For the record: I have decided to break down this post written by Jacob Larsen of DRays Bay even before reading it, having no idea if I will agree or disagree with the points that have been made…

Jake Larsen of DRays Bay takes on the role of Tampa Bay Rays GM and tells us the moves he would try to make at the winter meetings. We will take a look at each of these suggestions and offer our thoughts on whether or not the moves are good for the Rays and/or if the moves are even possible.

Jake first looks at the pool of free agents and picks five players that the Rays should be targeting as well as 5 players to avoid.

Ron Mahay, LHP

• [Jake's Take] it’s evident that Kurt Birkins and Jeff Ridgway don’t fit in a bullpen with names like Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler and Juan Salas(his last name is a palindrome). Ron Mahay would be yet another “veteran presence” in the bullpen. Only risk is that he’s a Type B Free Agent and he’d cost us a 2nd round pick in the upcoming draft.
• [The Professor's Take] Would be a strong upgrade over the leftys that are available in-house. Mahay made $1.25 million last season, which means he might be had for $2 million, which would be reasonable. Unfortunately, the Yankees may also be interested, and we are skeptical of giving up a second round pick. The Rays recent second round picks have included Will Kline, Josh Butler, Chris Mason, Reid Brignac and James Houser. Would the Rays trade one of those players for Ron Mahay? Not likely. For a team that builds through their farm system, that is too big a big price for a lefty specialist. verdict: DON’T SIGN

Tony Clark, 1B

• [Jake's Take] Positive Veteran Leader who still can hit for power
• [The Professor's Take] This is true, BUT, Clark is strictly a 1B/DH. While the Rays do need a left handed bat and Clark would be a great power threat, he would be strictly a DH with the Rays. That will take significant at bats away from Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes. Also, while Clark may be willing to be a role player or platoon DH, would he be willing to do that with the Rays? And will the Rays be willing to give Clark $1.5-2 million to be a part-time player? verdict: WON’T SIGN

Michael Barrett, C

• [Jake's Take] Decent hitter, calls a good game and will stand up for his pitchers when they give him a good effort. Yeah, sounds like he’s Crash Davis Incarnate
• [The Professor's Take] A Type A free agent. And while the Rays top pick is protected, Barrett would cost the Rays their second round pick. Again, would the Rays trade one of the above mentioned players (ie. Reid Brignac) for a backup catcher? Not a chance in hell. Low payroll teams have to be smart and that is not a smart move. verdict: DON’T SIGN

Andruw Jones, CF

• [Jake's Take] 1 year rental/shock the baseball world…why not bite the bullet and prove to Boras that we’re willing to take the risk and spend money? We sign Jones to an incentive-laiden contract with a possible option for a 2nd year, we impress Boras who needs to be proven that we’re “in it to win it” and we may be allowed to sign Pena to a deal that we won’t have to pay through the nose.
• [The Professor's Take] We admire the wishing, but this is absolutely ridiculous. First of all Scott Boras has already said that Jones will not accept a 1-year deal. Then consider that the Rays would have to pay $15 million annually for a player that has only hit above .265 ONCE in the last seven seasons, and posted a line of .222-26-94 last season. Don’t get us wrong. Jones is a talent. But the Rays have other needs. If the Rays are going to drop $15 million on one player, why not grab a starting pitcher (or two). verdict: PIPE DREAM

Kazuo Fukumori, RHP

• [Jake's Take] We need to continue slowly adding international talent and continue to improve our bullpen. It’s bad enough that Boston and the Yankees seem to have partnerships with Japanese baseball teams, but keeping Japanese fans in tune with Rays baseball with Aki and Fukomori will prevent those 2 from taking over the Japanese market
• [The Professor's Take] We have no idea about the talent. Our concern is that Japanese relievers are now the soup-of-the-day after the success of Hideki Okajima of the Red Sox. The Mets fell for this after the success of Ichiro when they thought Tsuyoshi Shinjo was just as good if not better. And please keep in mind that the Yankees are the Yankees and the Red Sox are the Red Sox. Even in Japan. The Rays may want a piece of that market, but they cannot compete on the same level as those two teams. As for Fukumori, there appears to be a number of teams interested, so it depends on how high the bidding goes. And in the meantime, the Rays’ need for a lefty trumps this. verdict: MAYBE

players to avoid: Darin Erstad, Trever Miller, Bartolo Colon, David Eckstein and Eric Gagne.

• [The Professor's Take] Please, please stay away from Erstad, Eckstein and Gagne. Colon? Not for the price, but we think he still has gas in the tank. Miller is the interesting one. Miller is a LHP that had a big 2006, but came back to earth in 2007. Again, if that price is not too much, he could be cheaper than Mahay.

Jake then proposed three trades…

SP Edwin Jackson, RP Al Reyes and OF Jonny Gomes to Seattle for C Jeff Clement and PTBNL

• [Jake's Take] We all need to give up the thoughts that Edwin Jackson will be a future starter in the Rays rotation…Clement would give us a dynamic young duo of catchers, which would give Dioneer the idea that he needs to speed up his development and “work out” a bit more often. Clement, due to his massive body, always could learn 1B on the job and get some ABs at DH. We’d be less likely to have free outs in our line-up with the possibility of Clement in the line-up
• [The Professor's Take] We like Clement and have made our feelings known about Jackson in the past (he is a quitter). Two problems. Seattle would probably do this deal without the Rays including Reyes (unless the Rays want an extra prospect tossed in) and we are not sure the Rays would open the season with such a young starting rotation and young starting catcher and not have a veteran catcher on the roster. verdict: WE LIKE

SP J.P. Howell to Arizona for RF Carlos Quentin [Quentin has since been traded to the White Sox]

• [Jake's Take] Carlos is coming off a shoulder surgery(to his non-throwing arm) and the Diamondbacks are hard-pressed for young pitching. J.P. seems destined to become a better p
  itcher on a NL team than the AL, so why not fill a hole of ours with a player that was a top prospect in a very prestigous farm system but has basically lost his luster by default and D-Backs crowded OF? If not JP straight up, offer them Hammel and JP and ask for Neigborgall in addition to Quentin.
• [The Professor's Take] Quentin was traded for a top first base prospect who was in single-A, so it is difficult to gauge if this deal would have been acceptable to the D-Backs, but we would have pulled the trigger. verdict: GOOD DEAL, CAN’T HAPPEN

SP Wade Davis and OF John Matulia for the rights to SP Mark Prior

• [Jake's Take] Initially, in an idea that I gave to RJ, I said Wade Davis for Prior. However, Hendry probably would be mocked for such a random trade for a pitcher that Cub fans have never heard of (even though they have a WR posing as a pitcher in their farm system). I added his idea to the offer, just for the fact that Hendry loves “toolsy” OFers and the fact that Matulia was a draftee of Wilkens(who drafted John’s baby bro, I believe, for the Cubs).
• [The Professor's Take] This one must be a joke, or Jake was getting really tired or desperate for ideas. NO, NO, NO…NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. First off, the Rays are giving up one of the Top 20 prospects in baseball for the rights to Prior? And let’s say the Cubs did turn down Davis for Prior. Who in their right mind actually thinks that the Cubs are all of the sudden going to say “yes” when the Rays include an outfielder that hit .257/.312/.352 in SINGLE-A!?!?! We know Prior is a talent. And we know that sometimes a team like the Rays needs to take risks, but those risks have to be calculated. A team like the Yankees can take a risk on a Mark Prior, because if he doesn’t work, nobody cares about the money lost. If the Rays give Prior $5 million for 2008, and he doesn’t pitch, that is a huge blow to the payroll and the roster. verdict: WE ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF JAKE WAS SERIOUS.

For the record: I have decided to break down this post written by Jacob Larsen of DRays Bay even before reading it, having no idea if I will agree or disagree with the points that have been made…

Jake Larsen of DRays Bay takes on the role of Tampa Bay Rays GM and tells us the moves he would try to make at the winter meetings. We will take a look at each of these suggestions and offer our thoughts on whether or not the moves are good for the Rays and/or if the moves are even possible.

Jake first looks at the pool of free agents and picks five players that the Rays should be targeting as well as 5 players to avoid.

Ron Mahay, LHP

• [Jake's Take] it’s evident that Kurt Birkins and Jeff Ridgway don’t fit in a bullpen with names like Troy Percival, Al Reyes, Dan Wheeler and Juan Salas(his last name is a palindrome). Ron Mahay would be yet another “veteran presence” in the bullpen. Only risk is that he’s a Type B Free Agent and he’d cost us a 2nd round pick in the upcoming draft.
• [The Professor's Take] Would be a strong upgrade over the leftys that are available in-house. Mahay made $1.25 million last season, which means he might be had for $2 million, which would be reasonable. Unfortunately, the Yankees may also be interested, and we are skeptical of giving up a second round pick. The Rays recent second round picks have included Will Kline, Josh Butler, Chris Mason, Reid Brignac and James Houser. Would the Rays trade one of those players for Ron Mahay? Not likely. For a team that builds through their farm system, that is too big a big price for a lefty specialist. verdict: DON’T SIGN

Tony Clark, 1B

• [Jake's Take] Positive Veteran Leader who still can hit for power
• [The Professor's Take] This is true, BUT, Clark is strictly a 1B/DH. While the Rays do need a left handed bat and Clark would be a great power threat, he would be strictly a DH with the Rays. That will take significant at bats away from Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes. Also, while Clark may be willing to be a role player or platoon DH, would he be willing to do that with the Rays? And will the Rays be willing to give Clark $1.5-2 million to be a part-time player? verdict: WON’T SIGN

Michael Barrett, C

• [Jake's Take] Decent hitter, calls a good game and will stand up for his pitchers when they give him a good effort. Yeah, sounds like he’s Crash Davis Incarnate
• [The Professor's Take] A Type A free agent. And while the Rays top pick is protected, Barrett would cost the Rays their second round pick. Again, would the Rays trade one of the above mentioned players (ie. Reid Brignac) for a backup catcher? Not a chance in hell. Low payroll teams have to be smart and that is not a smart move. verdict: DON’T SIGN

Andruw Jones, CF

• [Jake's Take] 1 year rental/shock the baseball world…why not bite the bullet and prove to Boras that we’re willing to take the risk and spend money? We sign Jones to an incentive-laiden contract with a possible option for a 2nd year, we impress Boras who needs to be proven that we’re “in it to win it” and we may be allowed to sign Pena to a deal that we won’t have to pay through the nose.
• [The Professor's Take] We admire the wishing, but this is absolutely ridiculous. First of all Scott Boras has already said that Jones will not accept a 1-year deal. Then consider that the Rays would have to pay $15 million annually for a player that has only hit above .265 ONCE in the last seven seasons, and posted a line of .222-26-94 last season. Don’t get us wrong. Jones is a talent. But the Rays have other needs. If the Rays are going to drop $15 million on one player, why not grab a starting pitcher (or two). verdict: PIPE DREAM

Kazuo Fukumori, RHP

• [Jake's Take] We need to continue slowly adding international talent and continue to improve our bullpen. It’s bad enough that Boston and the Yankees seem to have partnerships with Japanese baseball teams, but keeping Japanese fans in tune with Rays baseball with Aki and Fukomori will prevent those 2 from taking over the Japanese market
• [The Professor's Take] We have no idea about the talent. Our concern is that Japanese relievers are now the soup-of-the-day after the success of Hideki Okajima of the Red Sox. The Mets fell for this after the success of Ichiro when they thought Tsuyoshi Shinjo was just as good if not better. And please keep in mind that the Yankees are the Yankees and the Red Sox are the Red Sox. Even in Japan. The Rays may want a piece of that market, but they cannot compete on the same level as those two teams. As for Fukumori, there appears to be a number of teams interested, so it depends on how high the bidding goes. And in the meantime, the Rays’ need for a lefty trumps this. verdict: MAYBE

players to avoid: Darin Erstad, Trever Miller, Bartolo Colon, David Eckstein and Eric Gagne.

• [The Professor's Take] Please, please stay away from Erstad, Eckstein and Gagne. Colon? Not for the price, but we think he still has gas in the tank. Miller is the interesting one. Miller is a LHP that had a big 2006, but came back to earth in 2007. Again, if that price is not too much, he could be cheaper than Mahay.

Jake then proposed three trades…

SP Edwin Jackson, RP Al Reyes and OF Jonny Gomes to Seattle for C Jeff Clement and PTBNL

• [Jake's Take] We all need to give up the thoughts that Edwin Jackson will be a future starter in the Rays rotation…Clement would give us a dynamic young duo of catchers, which would give Dioneer the idea that he needs to speed up his development and “work out” a bit more often. Clement, due to his massive body, always could learn 1B on the job and get some ABs at DH. We’d be less likely to have free outs in our line-up with the possibility of Clement in the line-up
• [The Professor's Take] We like Clement and have made our feelings known about Jackson in the past (he is a quitter). Two problems. Seattle would probably do this deal without the Rays including Reyes (unless the Rays want an extra prospect tossed in) and we are not sure the Rays would open the season with such a young starting rotation and young starting catcher and not have a veteran catcher on the roster. verdict: WE LIKE

SP J.P. Howell to Arizona for RF Carlos Quentin [Quentin has since been traded to the White Sox]

• [Jake's Take] Carlos is coming off a shoulder surgery(to his non-throwing arm) and the Diamondbacks are hard-pressed for young pitching. J.P. seems destined to become a better pitcher on a NL team than the AL, so why not fill a hole of ours with a player that was a top prospect in a very prestigous farm system but has basically lost his luster by default and D-Backs crowded OF? If not JP straight up, offer them Hammel and JP and ask for Neigborgall in addition to Quentin.
• [The Professor's Take] Quentin was traded for a top first base prospect who was in single-A, so it is difficult to gauge if this deal would have been acceptable to the D-Backs, but we would have pulled the trigger. verdict: GOOD DEAL, CAN’T HAPPEN

SP Wade Davis and OF John Matulia for the rights to SP Mark Prior

• [Jake's Take] Initially, in an idea that I gave to RJ, I said Wade Davis for Prior. However, Hendry probably would be mocked for such a random trade for a pitcher that Cub fans have never heard of (even though they have a WR posing as a pitcher in their farm system). I added his idea to the offer, just for the fact that Hendry loves “toolsy” OFers and the fact that Matulia was a draftee of Wilkens(who drafted John’s baby bro, I believe, for the Cubs).
• [The Professor's Take] This one must be a joke, or Jake was getting really tired or desperate for ideas. NO, NO, NO…NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. First off, the Rays are giving up one of the Top 20 prospects in baseball for the rights to Prior? And let’s say the Cubs did turn down Davis for Prior. Who in their right mind actually thinks that the Cubs are all of the sudden going to say “yes” when the Rays include an outfielder that hit .257/.312/.352 in SINGLE-A!?!?! We know Prior is a talent. And we know that sometimes a team like the Rays needs to take risks, but those risks have to be calculated. A team like the Yankees can take a risk on a Mark Prior, because if he doesn’t work, nobody cares about the money lost. If the Rays give Prior $5 million for 2008, and he doesn’t pitch, that is a huge blow to the payroll and the roster. verdict: WE ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF JAKE WAS SERIOUS.

We have to commend Andrew Friedman for sticking to his guns and demanding one of the Nationals’ top pitching prospects for Elijah Dukes. Most of the Nationals’ bloggers seem to think that Glenn Gibson was too much to give up for Dukes, however, we have to admit, it is hard to get too excited. From what we have read, he sounds like a left-handed Andy Sonnanstine, that is still 3-4 years away from being ready for the majors.

What the Washington Nationals bloggers are saying about the trade between the Nationals and the Tampa Bay Rays, in which the Nationals received Elijah Dukes for Glenn Gibson….

Capitol Punishment has a nice in-depth look at Glenn Gibson, the pitcher the Rays received in the Elijah Dukes trade, and examines the trade. [Capitol Punishment]

In a pure talent sense, it’s a solid swap. I’m not especially high on Gibson’s long-term potential, thinking that he’s putting up stats with excellent command of mediocre stuff…But the stathead side of my is superseded by the fanboy side. Any player whose Wikipedia profile needs a separate off-field issues section is one you’ve gotta be careful of. And it’s a player I’m going to take no joy in rooting for.

Nationals Farm Authority thinks the Nats gave up too much for Dukes. [Nationals Farm Authority]

Not what I was expecting. I did not envision them surrendering one of the Vermonsters for Dukes…Gibson is a extremely polished lefty (for someone coming out of high school) and has a major league pedigree (his father pitched in the major leagues). I like Gibson for what he is a soft-tossing lefthander in the mold of Jamie Moyer (I use that as the best case scenario)…It’s a lot to surrender in a deal for a guy with the baggage Dukes has, but from a talent for talent point of view, the Nationals are the winners.

Nats320 credits the acquisition of talent, but they are worried about what Dukes may do. [Nats320]

Is he worth the time and effort? Is this the type of player you wish to represent The Nation’s Capital? Is winning worth far more than questionable character traits? Does being selfish, and self-absorbed, make you a desirable player–no matter what your background, and history has proven?…When Sohna and I attend any game involving Our Washington Nationals, we always hope for a win and the best for Our Players. Never do we expect that any one player may harm another–or that one player, is in fact, dangerous. Elijah Dukes has us worried–because–as his background shows–no matter what the Spin Doctors Say–he is A HAZARD.

We’ve Got Heart is not going to be welcoming Dukes to the Nation’s Capitol. [We've Got Heart]

As Nats fans we are now asked to show our loyalty by welcoming this troubled kid with open arms…not a chance.

The title says it all. [Just A Nats Fan]

“An Offseason Fear Come True”

Nats Triple Play also likes the deal less knowing that Washington gave up Gibson. [Nats Triple Play]

Ouch, that’s a little too much to pay

Tampa Bay Rays (66-96)
As we mentioned yesterday, Elijah Dukes was traded to the Nationals and Josh Wilson was placed on waivers and claimed by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Glenn Gibson, who was acquired for Dukes is not a member of the 40-man roster. The moves leave the Rays with only 38 players on their 40-man roster, a fact that won’t go unnoticed if a player such as Dale Thayer or Nick DeBarr is lost to the Rule 5 draft on Thursday.

We are not certain why Wilson was placed on waivers at this time unless another trade or free agent signing is pending. However, it is not surprising that Wilson was the player chosen to be placed on waivers. We suspected that Ben Zobrist had the edge over Wilson for the utility infielder position off the bench. While Zobrist has a slight edge offensively and defensively, his ability to switch-hit was may have been the biggest factor as the Rays are currently without a left handed bat off the bench.

With the latest round of moves, we have updated the “Cork Board“, our “Trade Value Index“, and the 2008 25-man roster projection and 40-man roster/payroll projection in the side panel.

Remember the projections are based only on players currently within the organization. In other words, it is what the roster would like if opening day were today. Obviously there are still changes to be made. For example, we do not see Justin Ruggiano as the starting right fielder, and the Rays would prefer somebody other than Kurt Birkins fill the role of lefty in the ‘pen. The only significant change since the last update is Juan Salas is not on the roster. He still has options (can be sent to the minors) and recent comments by Joe Maddon suggest that Gary Glover is a front-runner to make the team. On the 40-man roster we are assuming that one of the final two roster spots will go to Evan Longoria and the other opening will be filled from outside the organization, so we just left one spot blank.

As for the TVI, the biggest change is obviously the additions of Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. Also, the TVI suggests that if the Rays have a need to remove anybody from the 40-man roster, the most likely candidates are Kurt Birkins and Grant Balfour.

Elijah Dukes Has Been Traded To The Nationals [Rays Index]
Notes: Wilson Lost on Waivers To Bucs [Devil Rays]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

• One of the biggest misconceptions in baseball is that “Moneyball” and Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane is all about loving players with strong OBPs. Not true. “Moneyball” was all about finding players that are undervalued by other teams. At the time “Moneyball” was written, not many teams placed a premium on OBP, and so those were the players targeted by Beane. Since the book was written, most other teams now realize the value of players with high OBPs and hence those players are no longer undervalued. Rays of Light examines this shift and wonders if 5-tool players are the new object of everybody’s affection. [Rays of Light]
• RJ Anderson takes a look at “Economics and Baseball” and how they pertain to trades. [DRays Bay]
• One blog looks at the correlation between market size and revenue sharing in baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays have the 5th smallest market, but have taken in the largest amount of revenue sharing. There are several interesting anomalies. For example, the Blue Jays are middle-of-the-pack for market size (12th), but received the second most revenue sharing funds. [Thoughts, Essays, Etc. Sent Into The Ether]