Archive for November 26th, 2007

Nov 26

[THE HANGOVER] Jonny Gomes Never Saw A Pitch He Didn’t Like

Delmon Young, James Shields, Joe Maddon, Jonny Gomes, Scott Kazmir Cork Gaines 4 Comments »

Devil Rays

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

  • MVN’s Devil Rays blog has a new lead writer and a new name, and the only surprise is that there wasn’t already a blog using the moniker. We’ve never met Eric SanInocencio or his wife, but let’s hope that the title is the only portion of the new blog that is based on her TV interests. Among the million things we love about Mrs. Professor, is that she really doesn’t watch a lot of “ho shows” or “chick flicks”. Now the same cannot be said for my buddies Greater James and G-Unit. Those two guys watch more women’s television than a girl after a bad breakup on a Lifetime (Supply of Midol) Network bender. [Rays Anatomy]
  • While it is not surprising to see either Vlad Guerrero (6th) and Alfonso Soriano (9th) on the list of players with the highest percentage of swings on pitches out of the strikezone, it is surprising that Delmon Young is not listed in the top 10. In fact, Young is not even the worst on the Rays. Jonny Gomes ranked 3rd in baseball with 55.8% of his swings on pitches out of the strikezone. Apparently a mistake pitch to Gomes is one that is in the strikezone. Those that blame Joe Maddon for not getting Gomes more at bats, need look no further than this stat to understand why he has been unable to ever show any consistency or repeat his 2005 performance. [The Mockingbird]
  • Scott Kazmir ranked second in the majors with 10.41 strikeouts per 9 innings and despite being 4th in baseball with 3,609 pitches thrown, he was also 5th in baseball with 6.62 K/100 pitches. James Shields, on the other hand, was among the most economical pitchers in baseball. He was 21st in baseball with 7.70 K/9, but his K/100 pitches was much better at 5.79 (13th). He threw the 6th fewest pitches per inning at 14.9. [Baseball Analysts]
  • Delmon Young was a unanimous selection for the TOPPS “Major League Rookie All-Star Team”. Luckily for Young, the award is voted on by baseball managers and not minor league umpires. [Biz of Baseball]
Nov 26

[ELIJAH DUKES] Deal To Send Dukes To Nationals Does Not Appear To Be Imminent

Uncategorized Cork Gaines 2 Comments »

Last week it was reported that the Rays may be close to agreeing on a deal to send Elijah Dukes to the Nationals. Despite an anonymous insider’s assertion that the chances of a deal happening are at 60-70%, we now think the chances of a deal occurring anytime in the next couple of months are slim.

That same source indicated that the Nationals would not be willing to trade “anything of significance” to the Rays for the troubled prospect. The Rays, despite Dukes’ past, believe he is worth at least a top-level pitching prospect. At this point, lines in the sand have been drawn and neither side has any incentive to move from their positions.

From the Rays’ perspective, they are trading a player that can immediately step in and be an everyday major league center fielder with all-star potential. And while they know they will not get full value in return they expect something close. The reason being is that the Rays are not in a situation where they have to trade Dukes. He is currently on the inactive list, which means he is not drawing a paycheck, nor is he taking up a spot on the 40-man roster. So there is absolutely zero cost to the team to keep him exactly where he is. Because of that, there is no reason for the Rays to trade the talented outfielder for a mid-level prospect that may someday make a major league roster.

From the Nationals’ point of view, Dukes’ past and the public backlash that is sure to follow cannot be ignored as part of the package. But more importantly, the Nationals know that at this point they are the only obvious trade partner for the Rays. With Spring Training still three months away, the Nationals are in no hurry to make a deal happen and feel no pressure to up the price.

In the end, a deal may still happen, just don’t look for it to happen anytime soon. The Rays know that their position gets stronger the closer they get to Spring Training, because their position will not be any different. In fact, their position could become stronger if other teams in need of outfielders come up dry in the free agent market and those teams move their attention to the Rays and Elijah Dukes. If the Nationals do indeed covet Dukes as their 2008 center fielder, they will be forced to up their offer and the Rays will then decide if it is enough.

A deal in which Dukes is moved to the Nationals may still have a better than 50% chance of occurring, but all indications are that the deal is far from imminent.

The Rays May Be Close To Sending Elijah Dukes To The Nationals [Rays Index]
Dukes on Nationals’ Radar [MLB]

Nov 26

[THE HANGOVER] James Houser Added To 40-Man Roster Despite Ongoing Suspension

Carlos Pena, Delmon Young, Fernando Perez, James Houser, Jason Hammel, Jason Pridie, Jeff Francis, Jeff Niemann, JK Ryu, John Jaso, Matt Garza, Rocco Baldelli, Scott Kazmir Cork Gaines No Comments »

Devil Rays
Since the we embarked on our Thanksgiving shenanigans, the Rays made several changes to the 40-man roster.

Dropped from the 40-man roster

  • Chris Snelling (traded to Phillies)
  • Jon Switzer (DFA’d)
  • Brian Stokes (DFA’d)

Added to 40-man roster

  • John Jaso, C
  • Jason Pridie, OF
  • Fernando Perez, OF
  • James Houser, SP

The only real surprise of the group is James Houser. Certainly any team would take all necessary precautions to protect a big left hander that is a major league prospect. This is especially true when a left handed pitcher is a common selection in the rule 5 draft because it is easy to hide a young inexperienced pitcher in the bullpen. However, James Houser is not any left hander.

On August 17 of this past season, Houser tested positive for a performance enhancing drug and was suspended for 50 games. Houser missed the final 17 games of the regular season for the Montgomery Biscuits. As a result, he will be forced to sit out for the first 33 games of the 2008 season.

One could argue that Houser would have been more attractive in the Rule 5 Draft since he would not take a roster spot for the first month of the season. However, once the suspension was lifted, his new team would have to make a roster spot for a young pitcher that had been out of action for nearly 9 months and with no experience above AA.

In the end Rays management decided the risk of losing a young left handed starter was too great and decided to protect Houser on the 40-man roster at the risk of losing another player that may be more likely to be taken. At the top of that list are two of Houser’s Montgomery teammates, Nick DeBarr and Dale Thayer. DeBarr was a Rule 5 selection of the Red Sox in 2007, but was returned to the Rays at the end of Spring Training. Thayer, the Biscuits closer, holds the Southern League record for saves in a season. Both players fit the ideal Rule 5 selection…A mid-level pitching prospect that has yet to live up to their potential, that a team can take a flyer on and hope for the best. If the player works out, their new team has an extra arm in the bullpen and only had to give up the drafting fee of $50,000.

Rays tweak roster to hang onto prospects [tampabay.com]
Down On The Farm: James Houser Suspended 50 Games [Rays Index]

DEVIL RAYS WEBTOPIA…

  • With the changes that have been made to the 40-man roster, our 40-man roster and 25-man roster projections have been updated in the sidebar. One change we have not made yet is the 5th spot in the rotation. A very strong argument can be made for the team giving the spot to Jeff Niemann without any further time at AAA and moving Jason Hammel to the bullpen to be the long reliever and spot starter.
  • A report came down that Carlos Pena turned down a 3 year/$30 million offer from the Rays. Pena’s response when asked was that the report was that the report was “a straight lie”. He also laughed when breaking the news to his wife, which suggests that Pena would not have turned down such an offer. In our 40-man roster projections, we have Pena listed with a 2008 salary of $5 million. This is assuming that Pena and the Rays settle on a 1-year deal to avoid arbitration. Our feeling is that the Rays would not offer more than $8 million per year on a multi-year deal. [tampabay.com]
  • Rays of Light is up to #8 of their list of off-season ideas. This one is a no-brainer…”Sign Scott Kazmir to a longterm contract”. However, we disagree with the contention that the Rays should be tossing around numbers such as 6-years and more than $70 million. While $12-13 million per season might be the price for Kid K in free agency, there is no need to give him that money in his arbitration years, nor is there any reason to give him that type of money for his free agency years, three years before he reaches them. The best comparison could be Jeff Francis of the Rockies, another left hander, who signed an extension in 2007 (prior to his third season), that covered all three of his arbitration years and his first free agency season. His arbitration years were bought out at an average of $4.25 million and his first free agency year will cost the Rockies $7 million. Add a year of inflation plus consider the talent level of Kazmir and a comparable contract would fall in the range of a $6 million average for his arbitration years and $10 million for his first free agency season or a total of $28 million over 4 years. [Rays of Light]
  • Another trade rumor that refuses to die: Delmon Young to the Twins for Matt Garza. For those that are not familiar, Garza was the Twinkies first round pick in 2005 (25th overall). He is a 24 year old, big (6-4, 205) righty that split time between AAA and Minneapolis in 2007 going 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA and a 67:32 strikeout to walk ratio in 83 innings. In the minors, he was consistently around 10 K’s per 9 and less than 2.5 walks per 9 innings. [TwinCities.com]
  • Like every other team that needs an outfielder, the Rangers have inquired about Rocco Baldelli and his legs. [MLB]
  • John Herbert has written a column critical of the Rays plan to invest $150 million in a new stadium along the St. Pete waterfront. His two biggest gripes are 1) The Rays are willing to invest $150 million in a stadium but will not invest in the product that will play in the stadium, and 2) he believes that there will not be any parking available in the new location and all fans attending the game will be subject to parking tickets from meter maids running around in modified golf carts. [Hernando Today]
  • DRays Bay warns that JK Ryu’s performance with the Korean national team may cost him a spot on the Rays’ 40-man roster. We are not sure how much weight the performance will have, but we have Ryu on the roster bubble, so it can’t help. [DRays Bay]