Yesterday we presented the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections for the Rays position players. Today we take a look at the weighted mean PECOTA projections for the pitchers.

Please see yesterday’s post for an explanation of PECOTA.

Scott Kazmir 10 7 4.02 151.0 140 62 150
Jae Seo 6 6 5.31 113.1 134 37 65
Casey Fossum 6 7 5.01 112.1 123 46 77
James Shields 10 9 4.49 168.2 183 47 127
J. P. Howell 8 8 4.62 131.0 139 54 100
Edwin Jackson 4 7 5.83 94.1 105 52 65
Jae Kuk Ryu 7 8 4.90 123.1 133 47 85
Seth McClung 3 4 4.54 52.0 48 27 41
Jason Hammel 8 9 4.91 140.2 150 53 100
Travis Harper 2 2 4.66 47.0 53 14 32
Rudy Lugo 3 2 4.34 59.0 58 27 39
Dan Miceli 2 2 4.49 37.2 38 18 28
Jeff Niemann 7 8 5.02 126.1 129 62 100
Chad Orvella 3 2 4.05 50.1 48 20 43
Juan Salas 3 3 5.25 56 58 31 47

A few thoughts on these numbers…

  1. Right off the bat we see Scott Kazmir’s numbers and we have to raise our eyebrow. Remember, these numbers are a weighted mean. In other words, PECOTA is saying that there is about a 50% chance of Kid K having a better season than these numbers and about a 50% chance of having a worse season. Kid K’s success in 2006 at such a young age is a rare achievement. A lot of players that have success and throw a lot of innings at a young age have broken down in the following season. So these numbers are probably more a reflection of risk of injury than of talent.
  2. Now compare Kazmir’s projection to the Rays other young starter, James Shields. Shields is actually projected to pitch more innings in 2007. That shows that there is more injury risk factored into Kazmir’s numbers. Why? For one, Shields is two years older (25) than Kid K (23), and injuries are less common in older pitchers. The projections are also likely to consider that Kazmir is a power pitcher and throws more pitches than Shields making Kaz more at risk for injury. Again, this doesn’t necessarily say Kaz is going to break down this season. However, injuries and off-seasons are common in players that Kazmir compares favorably to from past years. If he make 28-30 starts this season, his numbers will be better than the weighted mean projection.
  3. Jeff Niemann probably does not have enough of a resume to make any realistic projections.
  4. Some of these projections are hard to read because PECOTA can’t predict who will be in the rotation and hence a lot of these projections include starter innings and reliever innings. For example, the projection for Jae-Kuk Ryu includes 39 appearances and 17 starts. PECOTA is not predicting that that Ryu will spend half the year in the rotation. Think of it as a simulation and the weighted mean is an average of many simulations. If you simulated the 2007 season 1000 times, some times Ryu is going to be a starter and some he is going to be in the pen. The weighted mean is averaging together both scenarios.
  5. The bullpen? Awful. Not a single pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA projection. That will mean a lot of blown leads…again. What are the symptoms for PTSD?

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  1. enrique says:

    It's nice to see a Rays' fan site that can write above a 5th grade level. Keep up the good work.


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