Archive for March 6th, 2007

Mar 06

The Hangover: The Rays Are On The Bubble (What is their RPI again?)

Bullpen still sucks, Mozart, Rays look good in glass slippers, Rotation, Rule 5 Draft, The temptation of not being tempted Cork Gaines No Comments »
  • Another solid performance by one of the Rays starting pitchers. James Shields allowed only one base runner in two innings of work with two strikeouts. At the plate, Joe Maddon tried a new lineup with Carl Crawford and Delmon Young switching spots in the order. The move paid off in the first with Crawford stealing second and Delmon driving him home.
  • Yesterday we speculated that one of the final two spots in the bullpen would go to Al Reyes and the final spot was up for grabs. Papa Joe Maddon indicated that there was a very good chance that Reyes would make the team and Juan Salas was the leading candidate for the final spot. One guy we might be forgetting about is Jeff Ridgway. Maddon went the first half of 2006 without a lefty in the bullpen. He has always said having a lefty is not a priority. Rather, he just needs a guy that can get lefties out. Still, if Maddon does decide to include a lefty in the pen (like the other 29 managers in baseball) Ridgway might be the guy.
  • In a classic non-story-story, the Lakeland Ledger says that the Rays should not be tempted to rush Jeff Niemann to the majors. The Rays have one spot open in the rotation (two if Casey Fossum can’t go the first week or two) and five pitchers competing for that spot. Niemann is not one of those pitchers. The team has been emphatic that Big Righthander would start the season at AAA. Trust us, they are not tempted.
  • Last season there was one of those classic New York sports stories (by typical we mean silly) that made a controversy over the use of the song Enter Sandman by the Mets new closer Billy Wagner. You see the song had been used by the Yankees Mo Rivera for years and for a lesser human being like Wagner to use it was heretical. Well, even though he is a starter, J. P. Howell’s favorite musician could trump them all. Who wouldn’t get fired up when Howell came jogging in from the bullpen with PA announcer blaring…Mozart?
  • The Hardball Times ranks the top 3 benches in the American League. The Rays did not make the cut, but they did receive honorable mention. Now if the team could just get some pitching depth.
  • Baseball Analysts takes a look at how often Rule 5 picks stuck with their new teams for an entire season from 1998-2006. Interestingly, outfield selections have the highest failure rate. Of the 23 outfielders chosen from 1998-2006, only five were with the team that selected them for the entire season. One of those to not stick with their new team was Rays farmhand Jason Pridie. Will Josh Hamilton become just the sixth? We thinks yes.
  • Could the Rays be Major League baseball’s version of George Mason this season? Only if the league decides to allow 65 teams into the playoffs, and even then they better hope that the selection committee considers the Rays strength of schedule.
Mar 06

Rays Roster And Lineup Projections Update

25-man Roster, Akinori Iwamura, Al Reyes, BJ Upton, Greg Norton, JK Ryu, Joe Maddon, Jonny Gomes, JP Howell Cork Gaines No Comments »

We are a few weeks, two intra-squad games and four official games into Spring Training. Now is a good time to take a look at our 2007 25-man roster projections. Over the course of the next month we will update these projections twice a week.

A couple of notes on these projections…

  • We understand that a few of the players listed as “secure” are not guaranteed to be the opening day starter at their respective positions. For example, there is an outside shot that Akinori Iwamura could still be the opening day second baseman. Still, at this point there is no indication that a move will happen. The “secure” positions are based on what we believe would happen if Papa Joe Maddon had to name his opening day lineup and roster today.
  • Several people have made the argument that our previous prediction of an 11-man pitching staff was unlikely. Their arguments must have been strong because we now tend to agree that Papa Joe is more likely to keep seven arms in the bullpen and only four bats on the bench.
  • With those numbers in mind, it now looks as if there are four roster spots up for grabs, with two on the bench and two in the bullpen. We almost listed B. J. Upton as secure, but we still think there is a remote chance that the team will send him back to Durham for more work. Even though Al Reyes is not on the 40-man roster we give him the edge in the final two bullpen slots. As long as he is healthy (and every indication so far is that he is) it is his position to lose. The final bullpen spot is really just a guess at this point.
  • We have long thought that the final spot in the rotation would go to J. P. Howell based on his performance towards the end of 2006. However, of the prospective pitchers vying for the final spot, Jae-Kuk Ryu is the only one that has been given a start so far and he pitched a solid two innings.
  • Greg Norton has been the DH with the regulars, but we still think when the season starts Papa Joe will go with Jonny Gomes on a regular basis, if not every day.
Mar 06

The Hardball Times 2007 Season Preview

Season Preview, The Hardball Times, They asked us to do what? Cork Gaines No Comments »

The fine group over at The Hardball Times have just released their 2007 Season Preview. The book features previews for all 30 teams, as well as three-year projections for all Major League players and select minor leaguers. For some reason, unbeknownst to us, they asked us to write the Rays preview. While we do a fair bit of writing in our day jobs, we have never fancied ourselves as professional writers. We are just Rays fans with something to say and a computer. As for the book…we can only hope we have not embarrassed ourselves.

[Disclaimer: No actual Rays were injured during the production of this book]

If you are curious about ordering a copy, head on over to Lulu.

Mar 06

The Hangover: Jae Seo Solid And Bullpen Still Sucks

Casey Fossum, Elijah Dukes, Jae Seo, Lou Piniella, The Fossum Flop Cork Gaines No Comments »

We didn’t think it would be possible, but it looks like Casey Fossum has come up with a way to throw even slower than he did last season.

  • Another game, and another solid performance by a Korean pitcher named Jae. Jae Seo made his first appearance of the Spring and pitched two perfect innings. Of course the bullpen turned in another horrid performance with Rudy Lugo, having his second consecutive poor performance and Chris Seddon combining to allow seven base runners and four runs in the final two innings.
  • Some love for the Rays over at Sports Illustrated. In this preseason preview of the Rays, John Donovan refers to this group of Rays as the most talented assembly in the short history of the franchise. You gotta love this quote from our cuddly teddy bear Elijah Dukes…

We’re good. Now. We have a bunch of guys who are going to want to show up to play. I believe that, this year, we can play over .500 ball.

  • Josh Hamilton’s appearance against the Rays today will not happen because he is suffering from shin splints. and not because he is afraid to hit two home runs and embarrass his former team.
  • Casey Fossum is further along than Joe Maddon thought he would be. Fossum is particularly impressed with himself because he is not hitting batters (not that is would hurt anybody). We still have a feeling that Fossum will start the season on the DL. That means there is probably going to be two openings in the rotation for the five pitchers that are competing for a spot.
  • For all of the Rays that are still here from the 2005 roster, do NOT let them read this article about Lou Piniella. They might start twitching. Is calling him “Sweet Lou” the same thing as calling a large person “Tiny”?