note: This was a post we wrote about an hour before the news of Delmon Young came over the wire. As far as we are concerned it is still relevant, especially in regards to B. J. Upton. Obviously Young’s “value” has taken a significant hit since his incident, but exactly how much is difficult to determine. He is still an extremely talented player.
While predicting how good a player will be is anything but an exact science, Nate Silver over at Baseball Prospectus has developed a formula called the PECOTA system which is highly regarded. In short, the formula gauges the value of all professional baseball players based on how good they are NOW and how good they project to be in the FUTURE, taking into account certain factors such as age, ballpark, injury probability, past stats, scouting reports and a little bit of gut feel. Topping the list of current and future value are Albert Pujols, David Wright and Alex Rodriguez. Certainly, none of those guys are a surprise. Two D-Rays prospects cracked the top-25. In fact, B. J. Upton (#25) and Delmon Young (#16) are two of only three minor league players in the top-25, and the third is Upton’s younger brother Justin Upton. Very few minor leaguers make the list. As you would expect, it is very difficult to project future value for minor league players. In essence, Baseball Prospectus is calling them can’t-miss prospects. Interestingly, they make note of Upton’s 0.35 years of Major league experience. The D-Rays will be able to delay his arbitration eligibility an extra year if they wait to recall Upton until June. We are trying to be patient and agree with the team’s philosophy of waiting until these prospects are ready, but we have to admit, we are getting antsy. Feels a little bit like Christmas Eve and we can’t get to sleep.
Baseball’s Most Valuable Players [ESPN.com]